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Is Africa the hot zone for bird flu?From Alphonso Van Marsh  In Africa, birds are kept in cages at marketplaces, much like in Asia. HEALTH LIBRARYRELATED
QUICKVOTEYOUR E-MAIL ALERTS(CNN) -- For Ugandan beachcomber George Bukenya, identifying bird flu is like identifying pornography -- he says he'll know it when he sees it. "I've been here four years and I've never seen the bird flu. I heard about it in Asia and other places, but I've never seen a bird here with the flu," he said. Like the thousands of fishermen and other Ugandans living off Lake Victoria, Bukenya has little expertise in determining if the birds that share the shore are carriers of the potentially deadly H5N1 virus. Lake Victoria is a major destination for hundreds of species of migratory birds, many of those either coming from Europe or Asia, or having contact with birds from those regions. Experts widely believe that the H5N1 bird flu strain from Asia is being spread by these birds as they seek warmer weather in the northern winter. (See bird migration patterns) So far, the H5N1 strain has hit 16 nations, infected 121 people and killed 62, mostly in Asia, the World Health Organization says. That strain does not spread easily from person to person, but health experts say they fear that it could mutate and acquire the ability to infect large numbers of people. There have been three pandemics in the past century, and global health experts have said the world is overdue for another. Agriculture officials from across Africa are trying to counter growing fears that they are not prepared to handle a possible outbreak of the lethal H5N1 virus. This village -- like many across the continent -- could be an avian flu hot zone: more wild birds are coming, chickens in cages are for sale nearby and there's a high congestion of people -- many who will return to their own villages for the holidays. According to locals on the beach, there is little guidance from authorities on what to do if bird flu mutates into a virus that can be passed on to humans. "We are not scared at all, because we believe God can do it for us," says one person. While the religious have faith, the scientists have a warning: "If the virus is coming to Africa it will start in eastern Africa and the capacity of the services in most of these countries are not what we see today in Romania and Turkey, which is a good response," says Joseph Domenech, chief veterinarian at the U.N. Food and Agriculture organization. Many experts say African governments won't be able to contain the virus -- even though many of them have already banned bird imports. Complicating the Africa equation: Tens of millions of people on the continent have weak immune systems because of the high incidence of HIV/AIDS. "It could be a disaster," says Celia Abolnik, senior research scientist at the Onderstepoort veterinary institute. "I think in that regard something like bird flu could spread very quickly." Abolnik is leading South Africa's effort to keep the bird flu at bay. Her scientists are stationed at migratory routes and in the lab, netting and testing birds. A similar bird flu strain crippled South Africa -- the world's biggest producer of ostrich meat -- last year. Authorities ordered tens of thousands of ostriches culled and compensated farmers. Beachcomber Bukenya says he wonders if Ugandan authorities can afford to fight bird flu and compensate farmers ordered to cull poultry too. And what happens in Africa has implications for the rest of the world. Many of the migratory birds -- potential flu carriers -- flying to Africa now will return to Europe and Asia in a few months. 
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