The drought had a negative impact on corn in Le Roy, Illinois. Drought occurred in six Plains states between last May and August because moist Gulf of Mexico air "failed to stream northward in late spring," and summer storms were few and stingy with rainfall, said a report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Editor's note: Michael Roberts is an associate professor of economics and Sea Grant Affiliate at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. He is currently on leave from the department of agricultural and resource economics at North Carolina State University.
(CNN) -- With extreme heat and the worst drought in half a century continuing to plague the farm states, there are important lessons to be learned for all of us -- farmers, consumers and the world's poorest populations alike -- about the effect of climate change.
The Agriculture Department announced this season's first major crop yield forecasts, and they weren't pretty: a nationwide average of 123.4 bushels of corn per acre, the lowest level since 1995. Soybean yield is expected to be low too, though not as bad as corn.
The United States, which is the world's largest producer and exporter of staple grains, is grappling with the biggest surprise in production shortfalls since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Certainly, this July surpassed July 1936 as the hottest month on record.
So, how will the devastation affect U.S. crop farmers?
Drought to push food prices higher
Ag. Secy. on drought relief distribution
Drought troubles in the United States
Obama on nation's drought
Drought, heat bring spiders out
Since mid-June, corn prices have risen about 60%, more than twice the projected decline in yield. This means that farm revenue will go up. About 90% of the corn acreage is backed by a generously subsidized federal insurance program, described by Steven Colbert as "Obamacare for the corn," so crop farmers will be just fine. Livestock farmers who use corn to feed their animals could see higher costs, but most have contracts with processors who provide their feed grains.
What about consumers? Will high commodity prices affect the prices of food you eat? Not much, actually.
Commodity prices account for just a tiny share of retail food prices. If you're a shrewd shopper, next year you may notice higher prices for meat, milk, eggs, and cheese and all types of processed foods. The USDA estimates that food prices will increase 3 to 4% in 2013. This is not going to radically change your life. People in rich countries like the U.S. are not going to eat much less or much differently as a result of modestly higher prices.
The crop losses will have the most effect on the world's poorest populations. About 2 billion people still live on $2 a day or less. Many of them live in urban areas of developing countries. Often, they must spend half or more of their income on food, the bulk coming from staple grains like corn, wheat and rice. For these people, a huge rise in grain prices is more than noticeable -- it can literally break their budget.
In 2008 and 2011, when corn prices went up to levels nearly as high as today's, the world saw a sharp rise in food riots. Many pointed to wheat prices as a catalyst for revolutions in the Middle East, including Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. It is not hard to see that food-related security problems overseas could cost us far more than the extra pennies we'll pay at the grocery store.
NASA scientist links climate change, extreme weather
The U.S. can ease price pains somewhat by suspending government rules that mandate biofuel production. In 2011, about 40% of U.S. corn crops were diverted to ethanol (a quarter, if we take into account that nutritional content is recycled back into feeds for animals in the form of distiller grains). But this seems untenable politically.
The larger and more important issue is whether this year's bad crop yield is an omen of what we should expect going forward.
Record high temperatures are occurring with far greater frequency than in decades past, and crop yields decline sharply in extreme heat. In research that Wolfram Schlenker and I have conducted using the Hadley III climate model, we project yield declines of about 20% over the next 20 years, holding all else the same. This summer's extreme heat may just become typical in 15 years.
Some have criticized these projections as too pessimistic, and they just might be. An atmosphere richer in carbon dioxide concentrations may allow plants to transpire less water during photosynthesis, and thus, improve drought tolerance. Farmers can adjust to earlier planting times, perhaps avoiding some extreme temperatures during the sensitive flowering period, and lengthening the growing season. And new drought-tolerant crop varieties have been developed.
This season was a good test of these adaptive strategies. It appears they didn't work. Carbon dioxide concentrations are much higher than they were in 1983 and 1988, when it was nearly as hot as this summer. And farmers planted much earlier than usual, many using new drought-tolerant varieties.
Record drought is good business for some
For now, we can take a little comfort that ample harvests in the Dakotas, Minnesota and parts of the South could make up for some of the decimated crops in the central Midwest this year.
But next year? And the years after? In the long term, a warming world will be a difficult challenge for our crops and all of us.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Michael Roberts.
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A calf strains for mother's milk as they forage amid dry wheat husks on the Becker farm August 24 in Logan, Kansas.
Farmer Darren Becker sifts through arid topsoil under a ruined crop on the family farm on August 24 in Logan, Kansas.
Rancher Gary Wollert pauses before heading out for work on August 23 near Eads, Colorado. The nation's severe drought has been especially hard on cattlemen. Much of eastern Colorado and virtually all of Nebraska and Kansas are still in extreme or exceptional drought, according to the University of Nebraska's Drought Monitor.
A billboard, "Jesus in the Wheat," stands alongside Interstate 70 on August 24 in Colby, Kansas. The billboard was erected by local residents Tuffy and Linda Taylor. "We just put it up there to minister," Linda Taylor told the Hays Daily News.
A boat dock is left high and dry at the Morse Reservoir in Noblesville, Indiana, on August 16, where water depths are significantly lower than average because of a widespread drought.
Fish remains bake in the heat in an area that is usually underwater at the Morse Reservoir in Indiana.
President Obama inspects a drought-stricken area of Missouri Valley, Iowa, with corn farmer Roger McIntosh on August 13 as he campaigns in the area. Since mid-June, corn prices have risen about 60% because of declining crop yields.
Heat and drought have destroyed corn yields.
A car kicks up dust as it drives by corn fields on dry dirt road in State Center, Iowa.
Jeremy Tilton adds hay to a feed mixer for cattle he raises on pastureland near Cuba, Illinois.
A tractor cuts down corn in a field designated as zero-yield on a farm in Vigo County, Indiana, on Tuesday, July 31. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has declared more than half the counties in the country natural disaster areas as drought sears millions of acres of pasture and cropland.
A field of dead corn sits next to the Lincolnland Agri-Energy ethanol plant in Palestine, Illinois, on Wednesday, July 25.
An employee stocks dairy products at a supermarket in New York on Wednesday, July 25. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said prices of dairy products like cheese, milk and eggs are expected to rise 2% to 3% because of the drought.
Corn stalks struggle to survive in a drought-stricken farm field on Thursday, July 19, near Oakton, Indiana. The corn and soybean belt in the middle of the nation is experiencing one of the worst droughts in more than five decades.
A field of corn shows the effects of the drought on a farm near Fritchton, Indiana, on Wednesday, July 17.
Farmer Ed Schoenberg and his son harvest oats early in attempt to salvage their drought damaged crop near Burlington, Wisconsin, on July 17.
Corn is watered with an irrigation system near Fritchton, Indiana, on July 17.
A single stalk of corn grows in a drought-stricken field near Shawneetown, Illinois, on July 16.
Brown and dry, a field of corn sturggles to survive drought conditions near Uniontown, Kentucky, on July 16.
Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn examines a drought-damaged ear of corn near Waltonville, Illinois, on July 16.
A weed grows thorugh the dried and cracked earth where a pond used to br near Ashley, Illinois, on July 16.
Farmer Marion Kujawa looks over a dried-up pond where his cattle used to water, near Ashley, Illinois, on July 16. Kujawa is digging the pond deeper so that the water will last longer in the future.
Farmer Albert Walsh walks through his drought-damaged corn field in Carmi, Illnois, on July 11.
The drought plaguing the Midwest has taken a harsh toll on America's corn crops, such as this one in Grayville, Illinois.
Swimmers relax in the shallow waters of the Mississippi River at Meeman-Shelby Forest State Park in Tennessee on July 6. Drought conditions have lowered the river's levels considerably from this time last year.
Fish skeletons line the bottom of a drainage ditch in Skelton, Indiana, on July 12.
Soybean seedlings push their way through dry soil in Skelton, Indiana, on July 12.
Cattle graze in a field on July 13 near Paris, Missouri. Many ranchers are rushing to sell off their herds as hay supplies dwindle and feed prices soar.
Cracked, dry ground marks the area where a pond normally stands in Crossville, Illinois, on July 11.
Brown corn stalks stand in a drought-stricken field on July 11 in Carmi, Illinois.
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