Return to Transcripts main page
ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES
When Faiths Collide: The Pope in Turkey; Police Shoot and Kill Groom; Help from Iran?
Aired November 27, 2006 - 23:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: ... who are not going anywhere at the moment.
First though, a word about the pope's trip to Istanbul and Turkey. Pope Benedict's recent remarks about Islam came at a time of growing concern in the West of a radical Islam and terror attacks carried out in the name of it.
In Europe, tensions over Muslim immigrants and the spread of radical Islam are increasing.
Here is CNN's Nic Robertson.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Just a few months ago, London police rounded up 24 suspects in a radical Islamist terror plot to hijack 10 airliners flying from Europe to the U.S. It is the latest in a series of radical Islamist terror plots spreading across Europe.
A year earlier, 52 people were killed when four radical Islamists blew themselves up on London's bus and underground network.
A copycat attack two weeks later, again in London, failed. For many in the United Kingdom, the country feels under siege from radical Islamists.
In a rare recent statement, the head of Britain's domestic intelligence service said there are almost 30 active terror plots and there are 1,600 individuals identified who are actively engaged in plotting or facilitating terrorist acts. And it's a concern throughout Europe.
MAGNUS RANSTORP, AUTHOR, "MAPPING TERRORISM RESEARCH": The figure in France is 500 hard core individuals who may move very readily to terrorism, whereas you have approximately 4,000 individuals who are sympathizers.
ROBERTSON: Ranstorp tracks the rise of radical Islamics for the European Union.
RANSTORP: The cells are also getting younger. They are also involving more converts. And more women are moving from a peripheral role into a directly operational role. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Most of the plots that have come, come to light in the United Kingdom have two common characteristics. The first is the process can only be traced back to some form of fire brand extremist preaching, very often to a single mosque.
ROBERTSON: In Spain, the same thing. Hard core radicals recruiting sympathizers.
FERNANDO RENAREZ (PH), TERRORISM ADVISOR: Mainly through face- to-face interaction by radical Islamic agents mostly, but not exclusively Imams.
ROBERTSON: Fernando Renarez (ph) was a terrorism advisor to Spain's interior minister.
The Madrid train bombings two years ago that killed 191, he says, were just such an example of the radical Islamists expanding their ranks. The movement got its first foothold in Europe in the 1980s.
RANSTORP: Radical Islam really began spreading into Europe and getting currency in 1979 with the Iranian revolution, with the spread of refugees fleeing repressive Arab regimes. Radical groups were among them.
ROBERTSON: But it was about 10 years later, in the 1990s when the anger morphed into action and the attacks first began. This was a bombing of a metro subway station in Paris.
Then after September 11th, they radicals morphed yet again. Bin Laden's call for a global jihad was spreading. And now, five years later, it's morphing again. Mosques are watched, recruiting in the open, more difficult. So they have turned to Internet.
RANSTORP: Women have become much more involved operationally, and the Internet has been a vehicle through which male radical Muslims have been able to get into contact with like-minded radical female Muslim extremists.
ROBERTSON: Also compounding the intelligence service's battle to stay one step ahead, there is no simple profile. Islamic radicals range from the educated to the illiterate, from first to second and even third-generation immigrants.
RANSTORP: There is a cocktail, a recipe or cocktail of potential trouble ahead as we see increasing (UNINTELLIGIBLE), increasing segregation, increasing polarization within societies; and of course, the Muslim extremists are thriving in this environment, and of course, they're also feuding right-wing extremism.
ROBERTSON: It's taken barely a generation for a handful of radicals to build to today's potentially lethal force. Hardly surprising then, politicians are warning it will take at least another generation to destroy it.
Nic Robertson, CNN, Amman Jordan.
ROBERTS: When the East meets West, they often clash. And Pope Benedict XVI has already earned a reputation as a blunt talker.
Over the next four days, many people will be watching to see what Benedict says or doesn't say about the remarks that he made about Islam back in September.
Here is CNN's Delia Gallagher.
DELIA GALLAGHER, CNN FAITH AND VALUES CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Pope Benedict XVI caused more than a stir when he quoted an obscure 14th century Byzantine emperor. It wasn't the first time he would speak so pointedly about Islam.
And in the months since that now famous speech and the fury that followed it, he may have issued an apology of sorts, but he hasn't backed from his message.
Vatican watchers say that's not unexpected. It says a lot about the man who made the comments.
JOHN ALLEN, CNN VATICAN ANALYST: And I think if you read that 5,000-word speech in context, it's very clear it's not really about Islam at all. It's about the relationship between reason and faith.
But what is characteristic is that this is a very tightly-packed academic argument. And in that argument, he simply is not willing to observe the kind of P.C. taboos about things you are supposed to say and not say if he thinks it serves the point he wanted to make.
GALLAGHER: In his 1997 book "Salt of the Earth," then Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger wrote, "we must recognize that Islam is not a uniform thing. In fact, there is no single authority for all Muslims, and for this reason, dialogue with Islam is always dialogue with certain groups." He said those groups run the gamut from noble Islam to extremist terrorist Islam.
And in a meeting with Islamic representatives in 2005, he called on elders to teach their young tolerance and cooperation.
But he follows a pope who tried over and over again to befriend the Muslim community. And Benedict's tougher talk has some wondering if John Paul II's hard work may be destroyed by Benedict's hard line approach.
ALLEN: No question that Benedict the XVI, has a slightly tougher message on Islam than his predecessor, John Paul II. John Paul was the great -- the bridge builder with Muslims. He met with Muslims more than 60 times over the course of is pontificate. He was the first pope to go inside a mosque, which he did at the grand Umayyad Mosque in Damascus in 2001.
I think Benedict believes that now that those bridges have been built, it is time for us to walk over them.
GALLAGHER: In the immediate aftermath of that speech in September, protesters filled the streets. Effigies were burned. A nun and a priest were murdered. But Benedict hasn't backed down. He called a meeting in Rome of Muslim ambassadors and religious leaders, and apologized not what he said, but that his remarks spurred a violent reaction.
The pope called for continuing dialogue with the Muslim community. But he insists that dialogue cannot take place unless the issues he spoke about in Regensburg become part of meaningful discussion.
ALLEN: It's got to be more than tea and cookies. We've got to be able to actually talk out real issues. And certainly, the two issues above all that he wants to put on the table are violence and terrorism, and then also religious freedom.
GALLAGHER: Will Benedict's steadfast approach open that dialogue or will it burn the bridges built by his predecessor?
His reception on this historic visit to Turkey will go a long way in showing whether Muslims are ready to accept this outspoken pope as an ally.
Delia Gallagher, CNN, Istanbul, Turkey.
ROBERTS: No surprise that security for the pope's visit will be massive. Here's the raw data. To protect Pope Benedict XVI, the Turkish government will reportedly use 10,000 police officers. Armored vehicles and snipers will also be utilized during the four-day trip. And according to one British newspaper, despite concerns by the Vatican, the pope is refusing to wear a bullet-proof vest.
Anderson is going to join us live again from Turkey, coming up, just as soon as we get our technical issues sorted out, which hopefully will occur sooner rather than later.
Now, the latest on a police shooting here in New York City that's making news nationwide.
A young father of two, unarmed and about to be married, was killed in a hail of gunfire. The mayor says it appears to be excessive use of force. Others call it an execution.
CNN's Deborah Feyerick reports.
DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It happened in less than a minute -- 50 shots fired by five cops at three unarmed men wrapping up a bachelor party, leaving the groom dead on his wedding day; the bride, devastated. VOICE OF NICOLE PAULTRE, FIANCEE OF SEAN BELL: They don't know what they've done -- what they've done, what pain they've caused to this family, to my kids.
FEYERICK: And the city searching for answers.
MAYOR MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, NEW YORK: It is, to me, unacceptable or inexplicable how you can have 50-odd shots fired.
FEYERICK: Sean Bell and two friends left Club Kalua at 4:00 Saturday morning. Undercover cops investigating guns and teen prostitution had been watching the club for months.
Police say when Bell and his party got into an argument with another group, Bell's friend threatened to get a gun.
They had just gotten into their car when the undercover cop pulled his weapon to stop them.
BLOOMBERG: When they tried to detain three or possibly four people in a car, the car rammed -- hit a police officer and rammed the car twice.
FEYERICK: It is unclear when all the shooting started, whether it was before or after the officer in an unmarked police van were hit. But of the 50 shots fired, 31 were by a single officer.
BLOOMBERG: It sounds to me like excessive force was used.
FEYERICK: Also unclear, whether the undercover cop, dressed in street gear, identified himself as a police officer when he pulled his 9-millimeter semiautomatic.
The relative of one victim friend shot three times says the men in the car thought they were under attack.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They feared for their lives. They didn't know that they was cops.
FEYERICK: No gun was found. And the shell casings at the scene all match the officers' weapons. So why then did five officers who never before fired their weapons on duty all start shooting?
One theory, a phenomenon some experts call contagious shooting, in which one officer opens fire and it quickly spreads among fellow officers.
EDWARD MAMET, FORMER NYC POLICE DEPARTMENT CAPTAIN: It has to do usually when a person feels threatened and shoots, and the people around them feel threatened as well. And in defense of that person, whether it's a police officer or soldier, will fire also. It's sort of like a Pavlovian response. It's automatic. It's not intentional.
FEYERICK: New York City's Police Commissioner Ray Kelly today admitted contagious shooting does happen, which is why officers are trained to fire three times, stop and assess the situation. RAY KELLY, NEW YORK POLICE COMMISSIONER: It is a phenomenon that does happen in policing. There is no question about it and we try to guard against it with training actually on the range.
FEYERICK: Still, it happens. The last time in New York City was in 1999 when cops shot unarmed Immigrant Amadu Dialo (ph) 41 times.
Unlike this latest shooting, the cops in that case were all white. This time they were mixed -- two blacks, two Latinos, one white.
AL SHARPTON, CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVIST: We will fight for all of the cops, black, Latino and white. Whoever is guilty ought to pay for this crime.
FEYERICK: Prosecutors will also look at whether alcohol played a role. Undercover cops are allowed two drinks to protect their cover. And the medical examiner will see if the men in the car may have been impaired.
Deborah Feyerick, CNN, New York.
ROBERTS: For more on this controversial shooting, I spoke with Lou Cannon. He is the president of the Washington, D.C., Fraternal Order of Police. He joined me earlier.
ROBERTS: Officer Cannon, the phrase contagious shooting is being used to describe this incident where one officer opens fire and then the others are compelled by instinct, fear or whatever, to open fire.
Do you believe that is an accurate way to describe what happened?
LOU CANNON, PRESIDENT, D.C. FRATERNAL ORDER OF POLICE: I don't think. I think what happens is one officer may open fire. The other officers don't open fire because of the fact that that one officer's open fire. They go to their training. You're going to fire on a perceived threat. That's what they're looking for. That's what they're reacting to, is the threat. Not because somebody else has fired.
There is any number of cases where you have many officers on the scene where one or two officers fire and many others don't.
ROBERTS: The mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, has called this excessive use of force. How would you describe then this idea that more than 50 shots were fired in a very short period of time, including one officer who fired 31 of those shots, emptied one clip, reloaded, emptied his gun again?
CANNON: Well, first of all, I wasn't on the scene, so it's very hard for me to judge what those officers saw, what they were perceiving at that time. Here again, I don't know what caused him to fire that many rounds. Multiple officers fired. Obviously multiple officers of diverse backgrounds saw things that caused them to fire.
ROBERTS: Right, well you mentioned diverse backgrounds. Do you believe that the shooting was racially motivated? Or did it have any kind of a racial component, from where you are standing?
CANNON: From where I am standing, I'd have to say no. You have diverse officers coming from diverse cultural backgrounds that all fired. They all perceived something. I don't see where race played any part in this.
ROBERTS: But do you think the same -- and I know that this is asking for speculation on your part, but I'm going to ask it anyways. Do you think the same thing would have happened outside of a club in Manhattan, had the people in the car been white?
CANNON: We have had incidences in this area down here where there have been white victims of police shootings where the officers have fired and they've turned out to be unarmed.
The officer is not looking at the color of the individual. He is looking at the threat. That's what they're trained for. You know, they perceived a threat. The race really has no basis to it.
ROBERTS: Right. Now you said that you have had incidences of shootings before where people have been unarmed. That apparently was the case here again.
However, there is one factor here that may play in the favor of the police officers, and that is that this fellow apparently tried to bump one of the officers with the car -- perhaps tried to run him over, at the very least tried to get out of the area and hit police vehicles. Does that justify shooting?
CANNON: Here again, I wasn't on the scene. Now, obviously if somebody is trying to run somebody down or ramming their vehicle into another vehicle, that's a -- at that the vehicle becomes a weapon and it certainly may in certain specific circumstances justify shooting. Not being on the scene, it's kind of hard for me to say, but obviously, those officers that were on the scene perceived it as a threat and opened fire.
ROBERTS: Officer Lou Cannon, D.C. Fraternal Order of Police, thanks very much. Appreciate your time, sir.
CANNON: Thank you.
ROBERTS: And, of course, we'll continue watching this story on 360 and on CNN.
Well, East meets West again. We have reconnected with Anderson Cooper in Istanbul. Let's go back there now -- Anderson.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John, thanks very much. Technology is an amazing thing. We will have more of Pope Benedict's historic visit to Turkey ahead, and what it could mean for a country poised on the brink of two different destinies.
And later, from enemy to friend, Iraq and Iran making peace and perhaps even more trouble for the White House.
All of that ahead on 360. Stay tuned.
COOPER: And welcome back. We are live in Istanbul, Turkey, where it is very early in morning here. We are just a few hours away from the arrival of Pope Benedict XVI, his first visit to a Muslim country. Turkey, of course, 99 percent Muslim.
We are joined by Reza Aslan, of the U.S.C. Center on Public Diplomacy, and the author of the book, "No god but God."
Turkey is different in terms of the Islamic world. You know, there is so much focus on extremism in Islam. Turkey prides itself on its secularism?
REZA ASLAN, AUTHOR, "NO GOD BUT GOD": Yes. And in many ways, I think Turkey is much more the norm than the exception. I think we, particularly in the United States, are so narrowly focused on the Middle East and the Arab world, which of course, is embroiled in the sociopolitical conflicts and these religious issues, that we tend to forget that the Arab world really represents a tiny fraction of the 1.2, 1.3 billion Muslims around the world.
The majority of Muslims are really in the margins, in places like Indonesia or in South Asia, or in Turkey. And in those countries, you do have this very fluid and seamless reconciliation of Islamic values with economic principles and modern, you know, Democratic ideals.
Turkey, in many ways, is the shining example of how Islam and Western so-called secular Democratic values can be reconciled.
COOPER: Really, since the 1920s, secularism has been the official policy, a separation between religion and politics here in Turkey?
ASLAN: It has. And really, what's fascinating is over the last few years, particularly with the ascendance of the Justice and Development Party, you're seeing -- I would say even more of a democratic push insofar as, you know, lessening -- loosening some of the restrictions that secularism has put on the expression of religion in this country.
COOPER: So if there is a clash of civilizations occurring between Islam and the West, Islam and Christianity, as some believe there is, what is the role of Turkey? What is the message that Turkey sends?
ASLAN: In many ways, I think Turkey becomes the shining example of precisely why that clash of civilizations mentality may be a little bit misguided.
Now, this is very important because as we have talked about over and over again tonight, Turkey, geographically very literally bridges the gap between the East, the Islamic east and the West.
COOPER: Right. Right over on that part of the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) is Asia. This side is Europe.
ASLAN: Exactly. And so Turkey becomes very important, not just symbolically, but literally so. So we have to be careful, I think, particularly with regard to some of the controversies that are taking place with Turkey's membership into the E.U., to not allow that window of opportunity to make Turkey very much a part of the West close because one could very conceivably see many years from now, maybe 10, 20 years from now, Turkey starting to look eastward instead of westward. And I think that would be a real disaster.
COOPER: There have been attacks here in 2003. In November there were four coordinated attacks. Two synagogues were attacked as well as the British consulate and a London-based British bank. Is extremism -- Islamic extremism a threat here?
ASLAN: You know, I think most of the people that we have talked to here recognize that yes, there is a small element of extremism in Turkey. But I think what we are really noticing is that the -- there is no fertile ground for the same kind of extremism here that you see in other parts of the Muslim world. And I personally think that there's one very important reason for that, and that is economic and social and political development.
COOPER: The economy is booming here?
ASLAN: Absolutely. And, you know, when you are in a situation in which you've got a good job and you're surrounded by certain comforts and you feel that you have an actual voice in the decisions of the government and in the society at whole, you don't have time for issues such as extremism or terrorism.
And I think there is a real lesson to be learned here about the development of the Muslim world and what we in the West can do in order to promote that kind of economic development as a means of taking away the appeal of extremism.
COOPER: Hmm. Well, interesting, Reza. Thanks, we'll be talking to Reza Aslan in this next hour and also all throughout the week.
We will have more on the pope's visit to Turkey, coming up.
Plus, two old enemies sealed a new alliance today with a handshake and three kisses. The leader of Iran and Iraq signal a fresh direction. More on what that might mean for the U.S. in Iraq.
Also, figuring out how to leave the military options for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. What is the best solution when many of our allies are already heading for the door, when 360 continues.
Turkish people's opinion of nuclear weapons for Iran.
Favor: 23 percent. Oppose: 55 percent.
COOPER: An extraordinary meeting took place in Tehran today, a meeting that might symbolize the Middle East shifting political landscape in the wake of the sectarian violence that has engulfed Iraq.
CNN's Brian Todd reports.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Tehran, two former enemies share three kisses and a handshake. The president of Iraq, which fought a devastating eight-year war with Iran, now says his crippled chaotic nation needs Iran's help to fight terrorism and restore security. The Iranian president is offering that help.
PRESIDENT MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD, IRAN (through translator): We believe a secure, advanced and powerful Iraq will be in line with the interests of the Iraqi nation, Iran and all the region.
TODD: But the U.S. and other critics say the kind of help Iran has been offering is dangerous.
MICHAEL RUBIN, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: In recent months, the Iranians have actively trained the militias. Not only supplied them, but trained them and made them into a much more lethal adversary.
TODD: Iranian officials deny they are supplying weapons to Shia groups inside Iraq. They say Jalal Talibani's (ph) visit is aimed at promoting better security and economic cooperation.
Iranian officials tell CNN they also expect Syrian President Asad and the Turkish prime minister to visit Tehran soon.
TODD (on camera): Analysts say with Iraq spiraling out of control, and the Bush administration indicating a change in strategy is imminent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is positioning his nation, not the U.S., as the region's most powerful player.
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: As Iran is trying to say to the Bush administration, unless you talk to us, the situation will continue to escalate and deteriorate.
TODD (voice-over): Ahmadinejad's hand has never been stronger. With an ambitious nuclear program, the world's third largest oil reserves, a massive army and ballistic arsenal. He's also gained huge popularity on the so-called Arab street by defying U.S. and U.N. demands to stop pursuing his nuclear program and by supporting Hezbollah's recent war with Israel.
Some analysts believe Iran's ambitions go beyond its desire to be a strategic power in the Gulf.
MAMOUN FANDY, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: I think Iran holds the main keys to most Shia groupings inside Iraq. And this is what prompts people like Mubarak of Egypt, Abdullah of Jordan, to warn against this whole Shia crescent that Iran is trying to create throughout the region.
TODD: A Shia crescent that could ultimately threaten those Western leaning governments in Egypt and Jordan. Iran, clearing enjoying its status as a necessary destination for other important players in the Middle East.
Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.
COOPER: Well, joining me to discuss today's historic meeting is Michael Ware, who joins me now from Baghdad. And also we'll be joined by Reza Aslan in a moment.
Michael, good evening to you. What so far has Iran's role been on the ground in Iraq?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Anderson.
Well, according to U.S. and British intelligence, Iran has been affecting a very complex program. It has effectively been trying to match the United States in terms of what the U.S. is doing here across diplomatic fronts, political fronts, economic fronts, intelligence and propaganda fronts and military fronts.
What the Western intelligence community says is that hardline elements of the Iranian revolutionary guards, Qods force, has been liaising with, training, arming, equipping, financing and directing many of the militias. We've also seen Iran, according to Western intelligence, play a heavy hand in creating the shape of Iraqi-Shia politics. Certainly, the United Iraqi Alliance, which took government.
Many Western intelligence agents claim that the Iranian ambassador here in Baghdad played a very key role here. So it seems clear from them that Iran is very much seeking influence. And indeed, many people would say with this current government, Tehran has more influence than Washington can hope to have.
COOPER: Well, Michael, certainly among Sunni insurgents, Iran is viewed as an enemy among Shia Iraqis, so how do they view Iran?
WARE: Well, that is a very, very mixed bag. I mean, by and large, many people underestimate the sense of Iraqi nationalism. Being an Iraqi Shia does not mean in any way are you pro-Iranian. Indeed, there is -- despite the cultural and religious similarities, there is many cultural and other divides. And don't forget these two nations fought a long and bitter war. A lot of the residue from that remains.
Nonetheless, Iran has been able to extend its fear of influence here. I mean, Saddam used to check Iranian influence. It stopped at his border. What we have seen, Iranian influence take southern Iraq. And then after the last election, we saw Iranian influence take the central government as well. So there has definitely been an expansion.
COOPER: We are joined also now here in Istanbul with Reza Aslan.
Iran's influence in Iraq, it really has never been higher?
ASLAN: No, it hasn't. And look, I think the Iranians recognize -- they are following the debate going on in the United States. They know that there is a momentum here that is coming to the consensus that there is no way of winning Iraq without Iran's help. And I think in many ways they are trying to co-op that and get the upper hand.
COOPER: By having their own meetings right now with Iraq's president?
ASLAN: Precisely. Look, Iran -- there's -- Iran is going to be a part of the future of Iraq. There's no way around it.
ASLAN: That's right. And at a certain point I think that this administration is going to have to recognize that we are going to have to deal with Iran as the regional power that it is. It is no longer that rogue state that it used to be in the '90s and in the '80s. And the sooner, I think, we come to terms with that, the sooner we'll be able to deal with Iran in a way that will bring some kind of stability into that region.
COOPER: It is amazing, though, that they have been able to overcome this enmity which existed between the two nations, though.
ASLAN: That's right. I mean, I think in many ways it shows an incredible degree of sophistication on the part of the diplomats in Iran. But more importantly, look, there's -- these guys are neighbors. They share, I think, you know, a religion. They share certain ideologies. They share certain regional interests. And more importantly, they have a very robust trade going on between these two countries. So, I think Iran wants to make sure that whatever happens in Iraq in the coming years that its interests are going to be preserved.
COOPER: Reza, thanks very much.
And Michael Ware, also in Baghdad. Michael, thanks.
Top level plan to leave Iraq could be in front of Congress before the end of the year. But U.S. allies are already leaving in droves. Coming up, a look at what has happened to the coalition of the willing.
Plus, Turkey is a country that bridges east and west, both geographically and culturally. Is it going to find its future alliance with the West or with Islam and the East? Ahead, on this special edition of 360, live from Istanbul, "When Faiths Collide: The Pope in Turkey."
ROBERTS: The group that's been set up to figure out a plan for getting U.S. troops out of Iraq has about two weeks to come up with an answer.
Pressure is building for a withdrawal now than the war in Iraq has lasted longer than the America's involvement in World War II. But making a decision on what to do isn't easy, and maybe even more complex by the fact the coalition of the willing keeps getting smaller.
CNN's Jamie McIntyre reports.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): For the Iraq Study Group, coming up with a winning strategy is chicken or egg proposition. Which comes first? Is more stability needed to awe allow for fewer U.S. troops? Or would fewer U.S. troops force Iraq to create more stability?
GEORGE MITCHELL, FORMER MIDEAST ENVOY: Every course of action has a high degree of risk and is not guaranteed to succeed. But I think that there has to be a process that will force the Iraqis to make the difficult decisions they have so far refrained from making.
MCINTYRE: The problem is, U.S. commanders, including top commander General John Abizaid, have rejected the idea of either adding a lot more American troops or any precipitous pullout. So any radical shift in strategy risks running roughshod over the best advice of the U.S. military.
LT. GEN. DANIEL CHRISTMAN, U.S. ARMY (RET.): So I think we're setting up an incredible clash between the senior uniformed military and our civilian community.
MCINTYRE: To avoid that, many observers believe the study group will advocate a gradual pullout, not linked to any firm timetable, along with increased training for Iraqi forces.
A draft proposal now being debated by the Iraq Study Group, reportedly frames the argument around the wisdom of a phased withdrawal, as well as engaging Iran and Syria in direct talks. That option is also favored by America's closest ally, Great Britain, which is anxiously eying the door.
DES BROWNE, BRITISH DEFENSE SECRETARY: I can tell you that by the end of next year, I expect numbers of British forces in Iraq to be significantly lower by a matter of thousands.
MCINTYRE: Like the U.S., Britain won't say how many troops might be withdrawn, but insists they would only leave if conditions are right. Still, the coalition is slowly shrinking. Poland is withdrawing its 1,000 troops next year. Italy's 1,400 will be out this year. And Ukraine, the Netherlands and Spain have already left. That will leave a total of 13,000 troops from 26 other countries, down from more than 20,000 a year ago. And most of those remaining countries have only small contingents of several hundred troops in relatively safe parts of Iraq.
(On camera): The Iraq Study Group is meeting this week in Washington. Its deliberations are secret, but whatever it comes up with will be presented to the U.S. Congress before it takes off on its holiday recess, early next month.
Jamie McIntyre, CNN, the Pentagon.
ROBERTS: Up next on 360, more on the dwindling coalition forces in Iraq and the impact that it may leave.
Plus, can you call it a civil war? We will talk to an expert on international affairs.
And Anderson gives us a look at Istanbul, a city bridging the gap between East and West, when this special edition of 360, "When Faiths Collide: The Pope in Turkey" continues.
ROBERTS: More now on Iraq and how the coalition of the willing is waning.
Earlier, I spoke with Anne-Marie Slaughter. She is the dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
ROBERTS: Anne-Marie Slaughter, President Bush finding himself lonelier and lonelier in Iraq when it comes to coalition allies. What's the potential impact on U.S troops if the coalition dwindles much further? May U.S. troops have to go to Iraq in greater numbers to backfill?
ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL, PRINCETON: I don't think U.S. troops at this point are going to be able to make any difference unless there's a political settlement and a political plan. And for that, you're going to have to stem the current violence. But sending more troops in without a plan is not going to do any good.
ROBERTS: So President Bush is meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Wednesday in Amman, Jordan. What do you think President Bush's mission is going to be on that particular meeting? Will it be a spine transplant for Maliki?
SLAUGHTER: I'm not sure that he could accomplish that if he would like to. I think he certainly would like to give Maliki the ability to actually stop the violence and probably the will. But a lot of what he is doing is to conduct his own regional diplomacy. The Baker-Hamilton Commission is clearly going to come out recommending a regional diplomatic effort, particularly with Syria and with Iran. So the president is conducting his own regional diplomatic effort in advance of that.
ROBERTS: OK, so he's got the regional diplomatic effort going, but it stops at the borders of Syria and Iran. Does this president need to push beyond those borders? Does he need to engage Iran and Syria if he hopes to bring peace and stability to Iraq?
SLAUGHTER: He does. There is no guarantee that engaging Syria and Iran will bring peace and stability to Iraq, but I think it's very clear that without their engagement, we don't have much chance.
The Iraqis are supporting the Shiites. There is Sunni support coming from Syria and elsewhere in the region. And you've got these two major players. They have a stake in keeping Iraq destabilized as long as the U.S. is there. If we suggest we're going to pull out or if we in fact have a phased withdrawal plan, then suddenly the civil war becomes their problem, not our problem. But we have got to sit down and work with them.
ROBERTS: So, you say that have an interest in a destabilized Iraq. Do they have an interest in a stabilized Iraq?
SLAUGHTER: Well, I think that depends. Yes, if we are not there, then suddenly, the chaos in Iraq becomes their problem. And at that point, they have a big stake in stabilizing Iraq.
The question is, can we get from here to there? Can we get from a situation where they are watching us be tied down, which suits them just fine. They're watching continual unrest, which at least for Iran keeps the price of oil high. And they are quite happy with the status quo. But if we pullout, suddenly the status quo, as I said, is their problem. And at that point, things can change.
ROBERTS: All of this hammering, Anne-Marie Slaughter, over the term "civil war," is it just so much of a semantic game at this point?
SLAUGHTER: I think it is. It really seems to me that we have to call this reality the -- whether it's a low level civil war or a high level or an all-out civil war, it is a civil war by just about any measure. And the secretary general of the U.N. today essentially said, look, that is where we are. We are there. We should recognize it. We should recognize that that changes the U.S. mission substantially to protecting civilians, and figuring out how to get a political settlement.
ROBERTS: All right. Anne-Marie Slaughter from Princeton, thanks very much. Appreciate you being with us.
SLAUGHTER: Thank you.
ROBERTS: And of course, all eyes will be on that meeting on Wednesday between President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki. CNN will be there as well. Anderson Cooper will be in Amman, Jordan, to cover that meeting.
But right now Anderson is in Turkey, and let's go back there now -- Anderson?
COOPER: Hey, John, thanks very much.
Dawn is just breaking here. The pope's set to arrive in several hours. This city, Istanbul, where the pope will be coming -- he's first headed to Ankara -- is a city that many say bridges Islam and the West.
Coming up next, we're going to take a look at the city and a country trying to balance two identities, when this special edition of 360 continues live from Turkey.
Do you consider yourself "Muslim first" or "Turkish First"
"Muslim first": 36 percent, 45 percent "Turkish first": 21 percent, 19 percent
COOPER: Dawn breaking here in Turkey. You are looking across the Bosphorus Straits at a mosque on the Asian side of Istanbul. This is a city literally divided between East and West. One side of the Bosphorus is Asia. This side that I'm on is in Europe.
Istanbul, really like the rest of Turkey, struggles with this dual identity. Turkey is an overwhelmingly Muslim country -- 99 percent. It is pro-Western and officially secular, separating between religion and politics.
Yet, a lot of Turks identify themselves by their religion first. One of the many examples of how Turkey tries to strike a balance between two worlds.
COOPER (voice-over): It's often said that Turkey is a country bridging East and West. Nowhere is that more clear than here in Istanbul.
(On camera): This is the only major city that sits on two continents. This waterway, the Bosphorus, actually runs right through Istanbul. That side of the city is in Asia. This side of Istanbul is in Europe.
And it's here in the West that Turkey sees its future.
(Voice-over): Though 99 percent of the population is Muslim, in the 1920s the government officially adopted a policy of secularism, separating religion from politics.
Today, Turkey is part of NATO and wants to become part of the European Union. On the streets of Istanbul, you can find Starbucks and McDonald's and every other Western brand.
(On camera): There are tensions here in Turkey, however. Many conservative Turkish Muslims say secularism has gone too far. They say their rights to practice Islam are being infringed upon.
(Voice-over): Case in point, head scarves. Here on the street you see many Muslim women wearing them, but the government has outlawed them in universities, public schools and for workers in government offices.
If we're supposed to have freedom and democracy, then these are unjust restrictions, this woman says. If I want to dress like this, then I think my freedom is being restricted.
Reza Aslan is an author and professor of religious studies.
ASLAN: In many ways, Turkey represents sort of a microcosm of what's going on in this larger clash between Islam and the West. It's ideally Islamic and it's ideally Western. It's dealing with how to reconcile those two identities.
COOPER: Tolerance in Turkey, however, has its limits. In 2003, al Qaeda suicide bombers struck this synagogue and another one in Istanbul. Twenty-five people were killed. The clock is still frozen at the exact moment the explosion occurred.
DENIZ SAPORTA, JEWISH COUNCIL: Yes, there are really some -- there are really terrorists coming out of Islamic origin. But there are great people coming out of Islamic origin, too. So we should concentrate on those people and not on the others. And this is how we should continue.
COOPER: How Turkey continues may hinge on if Europe allows it to join the European Union. That's why the pope's visit comes at such a critical time. He's spoken out in the past against Turkish membership in the E.U., but now that he's coming here, many Turks will be listening closely. Not just to what he says about Islam, but about Turkey and its role in the world.
COOPER (on camera): Faith and Values Correspondent Delia Gallagher joins us now. It is already Tuesday morning here. Dawn is just breaking. The pope is arriving in a couple of hours. What's he going to be doing today?
GALLAGHER (on camera): I think this is really one of the most important days of his visit, because today is the visit with the political leaders. The rest of the trip will be with the Orthodox community and the Catholic community. And so it will be his chance really to present himself face-to-face with the prime minister.
COOPER: And originally the prime minister hadn't planned on meeting with him. It was just yesterday that the prime minister decided all right, I'll have a 20-minute meeting...
GALLAGHER: Exactly. And then he will also be meeting with the important president of the religious affairs department of the government, who had previously spoken out against the pope's comments at Regensburg. And he will have a chance to meet with him face-to- face.
And I think, you know, the personal encounter is important here because Pope Benedict suffers from a negative image in some parts, and certainly after Regensburg. And I think when he is able to meet these people face to face, you know, sometimes it can be disarming. He has a different sort of personality in person than he has on the world stage. He doesn't have the charisma of John Paul II, and I think that's part of the problem that we're seeing in the communications. And it's been said before, you know, he doesn't have that stage presence.
COOPER: Are you anticipating big demonstrations here? I mean, there was -- the biggest demonstration was supposed to be on Sunday. Organizers, an Islamist party here had hoped more than 100,000 people or more. There were some 20,000 people at most. There are no more official demonstrations planned. Do you think they're going to be sporadic?
GALLAGHER: I wouldn't expect too much of an organized demonstration. I think some of those smaller groups might do something. But certainly the Turkish government will take care to put their best face forward. As we've been saying, it's a delicate time for them with their application to enter the E.U. And they want to be hospitable. I mean, the Turks pride themselves on their hospitality. So I think certainly, they're going to be very careful that those kind of demonstrations, if they do happen, aren't going to be in any way sort of hindering the Pope's visit.
COOPER: And of course, tomorrow 360 will be following very closely the pope's first day in Ankara. Delia will join us for that again.
Delia, thanks very much.
We'll have a lot more from 360 live from Turkey in a moment. Stay tuned.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) COOPER: John Roberts joins us now with the 360 news and business bulletin -- John.
ROBERTS: Hey, Anderson.
The Justice Department's inspector general says he has begun an investigation into his department's involvement in warrantless surveillance. Glenn Fine has told members in Congress that he has the necessary security clearances to begin investigating the information collected by the N.S.A. under the Terrorist Surveillance Program.
Concerns about holiday spending and the value of the search engine Google were among the reasons that stocks fell sharply today sharply. The Dow fell 158 points. The NASDAQ lost 54 points. And the S&P dropped 19.
Up until now it has been a hard day's night for Beetles' fans, trying to get the fab four's music content online. But that could be about to change. "Fortune" magazine says that iTunes is on the verge of a deal that will make it the exclusive agent of the Beetles music online for a limited period.
And tragedy of tragedies, Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock have each filed for divorce from each other after less than four months of marriage. Both cited irreconcilable differences on the divorce papers filed in Los Angeles. The couple was married in several wedding ceremonies over the summer, including one in St. Tropez, France. No early word on which marriage ceremony they are filing for divorce from, Anderson, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that maybe she's about to go back to Tommy Lee. What do you think?
COOPER: Wow. Gosh, I don't know enough about it. But I thought those two crazy kids were going to make it. Well, John, thanks very much.
Stay with CNN tomorrow for more on the pope's trip. It's a full day of special coverage. "When Faiths Collide: Christianity and Islam," starts tomorrow on "AMERICAN MORNING," 6:00 a.m., Eastern time, only on CNN.
We'll have more from Turkey tomorrow night on 360, all the developments on the pope's arrival.
"LARRY KING" is coming up next.
Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow, from Turkey.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.voxant.com