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Poll: Cruz Surpasses Trump in Iowa; Hillary Clinton Outlines ISIS Strategy; Polls before Presidential Debate; Will Marco Rubio Breakout During Debate. Aired 1:30-2p ET

Aired December 14, 2015 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[13:30:00] REP. STEVE KING, (R), IOWA: The establishment of the party wants low tax, and low regulation, and opportunity to do business, buy, sell, make gain, and grow the economy and make profit. That is all something that Ted Cruz is for. So I would say to the establishment wing, accept, that and then some social conservatives who need to hear something. Bye the way, they are nationally conservatives, too. I think Cruz does speak to that. We don't have that kind of poll who says who are they going to be for in the end if they get down to a couple of choices between Donald Trump or Ted Cruz? I think they will go with Ted Cruz.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: We will see.

Congressman Steve King, very nice to have you with us from New York.

The focus of the CNN presidential Republican debate is national security. But before the big face-off tomorrow, Democratic presidential frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, will outline her plans to defeat ISIS. We will talk about her strategy with one of her supporters just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: Welcome back. I'm Brianna Keilar, in Las Vegas at the Venetian, and this is the site of the next Republican presidential debate, moderated by our own Wolf Blitzer, who I am filling in for right now. We will have more on the debate momentarily.

But first, President Obama just wrapped up an important meeting with the military leaders in the Pentagon on the strategy to defeat ISIS. He says that the military battle against ISIS is moving forward with a great sense of urgency.

Tomorrow, the Democratic presidential frontrunner will elaborate on her counterterrorism strategy to protect the U.S. homeland. Hillary Clinton outlined her plan to defeat ISIS after the Paris attacks last month.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE & FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: Our strategy should have three main elements. One, defeat ISIS in Syria, Iraq and across the Middle East. Two, disrupt and dismantle the growing infrastructure that facilitates the flow of fighters, financing, arms and propaganda around the world. Three, harden our defenses and those of the allies against external and home- grown threats.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Joining me now is Jeremy Bash, who is the founding manager -- the managing director of Beacon Global Strategies, and also the former chief of staff to Leon Panetta at the CIA and Department of Defense.

And, he was on the Clinton staff, so full disclosure there.

Jeremy, it's great to have you with us.

JEREMY BASH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, BEACON GLOBAL STRATEGIES & FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF TO LEON PANETTA, CIA & DEFENSE DEPARTMENT: Thank you for having me.

KEILAR: I want to ask you, coming out of -- yeah, very good to see you. Coming out of what the president had to say today, he is obviously trying to reassure Americans, and a lot of Americans are not thinking that he is handling terrorism as well as they would like to see. And when Hillary Clinton outlines the plan to defeat ISIS, how is she going to the differentiate herself from the president, and instill some confidence that the voters feel they are lacking in him?

BASH: Well, two dimensions to the incredibly complicated threat. We are seeing this as the investigation unwinds here. First, of course, ISIL's command-an-control element in Syria and Iraq. The president talked extensively about what we are doing militarily to go after that, and that is a key component of what Secretary Clinton laid out a few days after the Paris attacks. We have to increase and intensify our military campaign there.

But, Brianna, you will see the second element, and I think you'll see that reflected when the president goes out to the National Counterterrorism Center, and what secretary Clinton is going to be talk about in her remarks, tomorrow, there is a homegrown, and a domestic radicalization piece that was not present in the 9/11 attacks.

But here is a couple with a seemingly normal lives with a 6-month-old baby. They engaged in the training, and they selected the target and got the weapons themselves. Maybe they have had links online to ISIL's command-and-control, but we don't believe they were directed by ISIL. So this is a lone-wolf attack on steroids. And anybody who has a plan has to be talking about -- and this is what you will see Secretary Clinton illuminate tomorrow -- is what can we do about the domestic radicalization piece, and who can take on their incitement, and recruitment, and the propaganda. How can we have a holistic approach working with the Muslim communities and law enforcements to look out for and understand how that threat going to be manifesting itself in the weeks and months to come.

[11:3y:25] KEILAR: And so that is really what we are looking for in this. And what is different is that she is talking about the domestic point of view. How much does she have to in a way confront her part in the Obama administration, and really, I think that at the same time, not just set herself apart, but confront what the Republicans are saying, look, she is part of the problem.

BASH: Well, look, I undoubtedly, she is going to be saying that we have made important successes, and strides. If you are looking at al Qaeda, for example, the command-and-control element that existed along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, this administration has a very good record of eliminating that elemental long the border. But she'll also talk about, and the president has talked about it, that the threat has changed and it has metastasized.

And now we have a new set of challenges that we have to confront head on. We have to have a comprehensive serious approach to this. We have to have, of course, the big kinetic operations down range in Iraq and Syria, and have as she will be talking about an excellence surge to make sure that we have more collection, and more analyst, more technical surveillance penetrating the plots of the ISIS adversaries in the region and here at home. So she's that tout pieces together. And she will. Others out there running for president, you will hear from them in Las Vegas, who have a one-dimensional view or cartoonish view. And what you will hear from her is a serious, comprehensive view that takes into the consideration the elements of all of our national power.

KEILAR: Jeremy Bash, thank you so much for being with us.

BASH: Thanks, Brianna.

KEILAR: Coming up, we will talk about Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. They're at the center stage of the debates. What the other candidates are going to have to do to win the night.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:41:27] KEILAR: Everything is coming together here in Las Vegas at the Venetian Hotel as we here at CNN are preparing to bring you the next Republican presidential debate, the fifth and the final debate of the year. It comes at a pivotal time, because the field is set for tomorrow's primetime debate. You have Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina there on the main stage. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz taking center state with their battle in the polls, in the press, also on Twitter. And they are not in this race alone though.

I want to bring in Kevin Madden, who is a Republican strategist who worked for Mitt Romney's campaign; and also CNN political senior analyst and "National Journal" editorial director, Ron Brownstein; and we have CNN senior political reporter, Nia-Malika Henderson.

I want to talk about this NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll. Trump at the top. But I want you to weigh in here. What is the most important to take into account here, Ted Cruz's 12-point bump since October, which is huge? Is it the 18-point drop of Ben Carson? What do you think, Kevin?

KEVIN MADDEN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, it is both of them. The rise of Cruz and the precipitous drop is to represent a mano-a- mano race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, and you will see it manifest itself tomorrow night during the debate where we will see a clash of the titans in the conservative lane in the primary.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: And I would say something more precise in terms of the poll. What you are seeing is Ted Cruz is filling the evangelical support that Ben Carson is shedding. That is behind of the move up where the "Des Moines Iowan" poll had him above in the evangelical Christians. And for Cruz, that is necessary to get into the finals in the race but it's not sufficient, like Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who could not do that. Cruz will have to expand beyond that beachhead if he's going to become a true competitor.

KEILAR: And that's the question, Nia. He has a couple of challenges. The Republican establishment may choose Ted Cruz over Donald Trump --

(CROSSTALK)

NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Barely.

KEILAR: But not over that many people. So how does he broaden the appeal with the moderate Republicans and deal with what appears to be a likeability issue?

HENDERSON: Well, he is not as well liked among the establishment, or as well liked, like someone like Marco Rubio or Ben Carson. And the question for him is that it does seem like he can get people out of Iowa and win the south as well, but how does he broaden behind the map that Santorum was able to capture in 2012, and all of the sudden states did well, and in states such as Colorado and Missouri as well. But that is a big challenge tonight. Is he able to appeal to the Chamber of Commerce Republicans, even some of the voters that Trump appeals to, the non-college-educated, blue collar, white voters that are so important?

KEILAR: And Ben Carson has said, Kevin, that he is not going into panic mode because the numbers dropped, because he is not a politician. But if he were your guy --

(LAUGHTER)

KEILAR: -- would you be in panic mode?

MADDEN: Well, I would worry that some of the places that where we have made inroads like Iowa are starting to retreat from the campaign. That is something that he has to do is to go back out again. And now he has to be able to break through the fight that Trump and Cruz have gotten into. And so he has to offer a crystallized message to voters, remind them why they were with him in the first place, why they were out there on the island.

KEILAR: Ron, what do you think about -- at this point, let's talk about Hillary Clinton.

BROWNSTEIN: Hillary Clinton. (LAUGHTER)

[13:45:07] KEILAR: She is doing pretty well, and the frontrunner at this point in time. When she is in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, she will beat them more easily than Marco Rubio or Ben Carson. And so now, when you are looking at Republicans, the Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, Marco Rubio option there?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, it is too hard to draw too much from the polls. The choice is not framed in voters' minds.

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: It is just for fun?

(CROSSTALK)

BROWNSTEIN: Well, it is revealing that the numbers don't vary that much by the candidate, and it is really the generic. And it reminds you that we are in the 50-50 country. And what is striking is the cognizant difference of the party leadership who, by and large, look looks at the polls, and says that Cruz and Trump are the weakest, and when you poll, they say that Trump is the most electable. So there is a big difference of the assessment of the people at the top of the Republican pyramid and the people at the base as to who is the strongest nominee.

KEILAR: All right, guys. Thanks so much. We will leave it there.

And obviously, we'll dealing with the wind.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: Kevin, Ron and Nia -- and I will stay here though -- thank you, guys, so much.

BROWNSTEIN: Free Briana.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: So while the polls suggested that Marco Rubio would do well in the general election, the Florida Senator has a long way to go before he can focus on that campaign. Ahead, we will talk to a supporter about what Rubio has to do tomorrow night if he wants to win this nomination.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:50:20] KEILAR: You're going to hear a lot about Donald Trump and Ted Cruz ahead of tomorrow night's debate here in Las Vegas at the Venetian Hotel, but don't lose sight of Marco Rubio. The Florida Senator has consistently turned in strong debate performances. He's the hope of the Republican establishment and the pick of some pundits to win it all. To do so, he's going to have to knock off some top rivals.

On NBC's "Meet the Press," he took a shot at Ted Cruz.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO, (R), FLORIDA & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He talks tough on some of these issues, for example, he's going to carpet bomb ISIS, but the only budget he's ever voted for in the time of Senate is a budget that cut defense spending by more than Barack Obama supposedly cut it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Will we see a Marco Rubio moment on the stage?

To talk about that I'm joined by Congressman Darrell Issa, a supporter of Marco Rubio.

What does your candidate have to do? The assumption is that he is banking on the fact that Jeb Bush will continue to stagnate and some of the big money behind Jeb Bush is going to swing his way and he's going to get some of that support. Jeb Bush has a lot of money. He could hang out there for a while. How does he set himself apart to take on a Ted Cruz and a Donald Trump?

REP. DARRELL ISSA, (R), CALIFORNIA: Brianna, this whole time, this whole campaign, Marco has simply been himself. He's been a uniter. He's been talking about the next generation, if you will, of wants, needs and conservatism. And it's resonating. Is it resonating first on a given day? No. That position has been changing. But when you look at consistent polls of who is going to win in the general, as people have gotten to know Marco Rubio better, they realize he's the alternative to Hillary Clinton. And after all, it's not about the Republican Party picking a nominee. It's about the American people picking a president who can unite America, who can give us a positive vision, and candidly also deal with a foreign affairs fiasco that has happened over the last seven years.

KEILAR: A lot of people plotting the race look at Ted Cruz and say he has a decent path. There's a reason why he's going to the southern states after this debate. He's doing well. He's number two when it comes to money, behind Jeb Bush. How does Marco Rubio compete against Ted Cruz, with the money, and also with the southern states that are going to be so key once Republicans clear Iowa and South Carolina?

ISSA: It's certainly -- historically, you want to have all the money in the world, and you win. That's not happening now. The super PACs are spending a lot of money. It's not resonating. What's resonating is what candidates say. Initially, it was Ben Carson. Then it was Donald Trump. Cruz is having his time. As people listen, what happens is Marco Rubio continues to rise steadily while these other candidates rise and then they sort of tell America what they are really about and plummet. It's happening to Trump. It happened to Carson. I think it's going to happen to Cruz. Cruz has not been a uniter in the Senate. Why would we believe he's going to be a uniting when he gets to the White House? What we have had is a loner in the White House and nobody knows how he makes his decisions. We need somebody that's open, transparent and inclusive. That's Marco Rubio.

KEILAR: So what is his strategy coming in tomorrow night to this fifth and final debate? What could be pivotal in the wake of the two terrorist attacks? Is it that he's going to take on Hillary Clinton? Is he going to position himself as more electable, assuming he were to get to the general?

ISSA: I think to the extent that we were talking about the terrorist attacks and bad policy versus good policy, Marco Rubio is there, and has always has been there. He's been the one touting and pushing and getting legislation to make America safer. He's fought hard for it. It's one of the dividing points between Cruz, who although sometimes is a Libertarian, I like him, but as a national security person, he sometimes loses track of you can't be a purist when you have to protect the American people. Marco Rubio has been solid on that. I think that's going to come out tomorrow night.

KEILAR: This is one of the hits that Marco Rubio has put up against Ted Cruz, is this vote on letting that program for metadata expire. This is something that Cruz did. He's not strong on national defense. Are we going to see that sort of rumble happen here in Vegas tomorrow?

[13:55:00] ISSA: You know, there were people on both sides of that. What's important to understand is Marco Rubio said we have to have a viable program. I'm for this one, and I want to transition to others perhaps, but we have got to have it. We can't go dark. Cruz has said it doesn't matter. To be candid, there has to be a next generation of the ability to seek out these. And I'll be quick. Marco Rubio has talked about the mistakes we have made in not looking at open data. He's very tech savvy. Cruz talked about "let it be." We know what happened near my district in southern California, in San Bernardino, could have been prevented with open-source searching, some that the United States government could do, it wouldn't be controversial. Look at Facebook and look at Twitter and find out who is talking terrorism before you let them in the country. That's where Marco Rubio stands as solid and consistent.

KEILAR: Congressman Darrell Issa, thank you for being with us. We appreciate it.

ISSA: Thank you.

KEILAR: That is it for me from Las Vegas, the site of tomorrow night's debate. I'll be back at 5:00 eastern on "The Situation Room," in for Wolf Blitzer.

For our international viewers, "Amanpour" is next.

For our viewers in North America, NEWSROOM with Brooke Baldwin starts right after this quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)