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The Forecast: GOP Over-Performing With Latino Vote In Some Districts; Pulse Of The People: Independent Voters On The Trump Presidency; President Trump Tours Hurricane-Ravaged Florida And Georgia; CNN Reality Check: Trump And Saudi Military Deal Questionable At Best. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired October 16, 2018 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:33:20] ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: The midterm elections are three weeks away, so will the Latino vote help Republicans fend off a blue wave?

There's something about Harry. Let's get "The Forecast" with CNN senior politics writer and analyst Harry Enten.

Harry, tell us which way you think the Latino vote is going.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICS WRITER AND ANALYST: So, I decided to look at my forecast and look at five districts in particular where the Republicans represent the district but there are over 50 percent Latino citizen voting age population. So we have three districts in Florida, one district in Texas, and one district all the way out there in California -- and that's a stretch for me.

So let's take a look and see exactly what we're seeing here.

Clinton did very, very well in these districts. She won four of them. The one that she lost, Florida 25, she only lost by two.

But now, look at where the forecast is showing them. Republicans are leading in three of them, and in only two of them where they're not winning, it's a very, very tight race.

So look at the difference here and this is the key, right? We're looking at the difference between how Clinton did and where my forecast suggests it's going to be in 2018. And you see that the Republican candidates are outperforming where Donald Trump did two years ago by 14 percentage points. That is huge.

And if, in fact, Democrats do not take back the majority on election night in the House, it could be because of an underperformance with Latino voters.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: And you may be seeing that in Texas also with Beto O'Rourke. They're not doing as well among Latino voters as he needs to.

Any sense of why this is happening? Is the president appealing more to Hispanic voters than maybe we think or is this a candidate-specific thing?

ENTEN: I think it's a number of things.

So, I created this metric which is called the weighted average partisanship. It's up there in the clouds. It's this fantastic mathematical --

CAMEROTA: Very catchy.

[07:35:00] BERMAN: That's a really catchy name there.

CAMEROTA: Very catchy.

ENTEN: Very, very catchy. You know me, I'm a catchy type of guy.

But it essentially takes into account a whole slew of elections since 2012. And what we see here is if you look at this weighted average partisanship and compare it to my forecast margin, yes, the GOP is overperforming by six points but that's half of the margin that they're overperforming relative to the Clinton vote.

So what we're seeing here is perhaps Donald Trump is not having the same impact in these districts as you might otherwise expect. It does seem that these Republican candidates are able to hold on to at least a little bit of the ancestral voting patterns in those districts.

CAMEROTA: Because Latinos are more conservative.

ENTEN: I --

CAMEROTA: Their values -- in terms of values, they're more conservative.

ENTEN: I think it might be that they're more conservative. I also think that these candidates in these districts tend to fit them a little bit better.

For instance, we know that the candidates in these districts tend to be more moderate than perhaps the GOP at large.

The most conservative of them is Will Hurd down here in Texas, this 23rd district, and he isn't that conservative at all. In fact, he is in the top 25th percentile for most-moderate members in the House for Republicans.

BERMAN: Some of the other things you're seeing Florida is their high number of Cuban Republicans and Cuban Latinos in these districts. And, Cubans tend to vote more Republican than other Latinos.

ENTEN: That's exactly right. But even so, if you look, for instance, in a recent poll in Florida's 27th district that was done by Mason- Dixon, what you see is even there -- among Cuban voters, in particular -- you're seeing that the Republican candidate there, Salazar, is doing much better among Cubans than Donald Trump did two years ago.

BERMAN: Bottom line, biggest of big pictures here because Democrats have always looked to the demographic shifts in America as being their friend long-term. In this midterm, if they were hoping that a high Latino vote was going to carry them over the top in the House you are saying --

ENTEN: I'm saying be very, very skeptical of that. If -- what's going to carry them to the House majority is probably white, college- educated women, in particular, and white, college-educated voters overall. It's probably not going to be Latinos. Maybe it's a high African American turnout in some of these districts, perhaps in Florida, for example.

You know, there are plenty of African American voters in these Florida districts, in particular, and Andrew Gillum, the African American gubernatorial candidate, could help boost that turnout. And that may be what ultimately flips this.

CAMEROTA: Oh, I mean, what you're saying is this is not going to be the Hispanic vote. I mean, the --

ENTEN: No.

CAMEROTA: -- Hispanic vote is going absolutely in the other direction.

ENTEN: I'm not sure it's going absolutely in the other direction but I'll point out, for instance, in Texas' 23rd district what we've seen from "The New York Times" polling is that Latino voters are simply not turning out in as large a numbers as you might expect.

BERMAN: Interesting. Where are we right now, as we wake up this morning, on the House forecast?

ENTEN: If we look at our House forecast we see Democrats are still favored overall, right, with 228 seats to Republicans' 206. So even with this Latino underperformance we still think that Democrats are going to take control of the House.

BERMAN: For people who wake up religiously and click on this every morning, I will note this is one fewer seat than yesterday.

ENTEN: It is one fewer seat than yesterday. This will happen, right, as new polls come in.

But I will say that as we get more House district polls in -- for instance, from "The New York Times" which has been doing it daily -- some of those numbers which we haven't imputed into the model yet because the polls are aren't completed, look pretty good for Democrats right now.

So keep checking back.

CAMEROTA: OK. How about the Senate? Where are they right now, today?

ENTEN: So if we look -- obviously, right now, 51-49. But if we look at our forecast what we see is still Republicans 52 to Democrats 48. We had a pretty decent poll out in Nevada, for instance, for Dean

Heller yesterday.

BERMAN: Yes.

ENTEN: So, again, that's another state. A lot of Latinos in it. They don't seem to be showing up.

And in Nevada and in Arizona, if you're looking at those two states where Democrats are hoping to pick up where there are currently Republican incumbents, right now the Democrats perhaps aren't doing as well as you might think.

BERMAN: I think this is fascinating. I hope people look at what you're writing about this and dig into this segment because these numbers really do tell a story counter to what I think a lot of Democrats were assuming heading into this election.

ENTEN: I think that's absolutely right. And, indeed, sometimes politics is a strange thing. Florida's 27th district, I think, was the number one pick-up opportunity for Democrats heading in but it just turns out that maybe those numbers aren't there where they thought they were going to be.

BERMAN: In the final --

CAMEROTA: Nobody shows its strangeness more than you, Harry.

BERMAN: I think the highlight was when he reached over and touched California.

CAMEROTA: And it was far.

BERMAN: Oh, my back.

CAMEROTA: Ouch.

BERMAN: California.

ENTEN: My back -- I'm an old Jew, OK? I'm an old -- I'm an old man. My father had me at 60. (Audio gap)

BERMAN: You look great. (Audio gap).

ENTEN: Thank you.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much.

Harry's forecast will be available each day at 9:00 a.m. on cnn.com/forecast, presuming he doesn't have to touch California that much. It will include the range and certainty of the prediction, along with a daily column to break down what it means for Democrats, Republicans, and you.

CAMEROTA: With the midterms around the corner we check in with Independent voters, most of whom supported Donald Trump in 2016. How do they feel now? What are they going to do about the midterms?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SYDNEY COHAN, INDEPENDENT VOTER, CHANGING PARTY AFFILIATION TO DEMOCRATIC, REGRETS VOTING FOR TRUMP: I believe hardly anything the president says, but I do believe he's a danger to this country and to our democracy and I'm going to fight every day. I'm going to fight every day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: That's one of the people who voted for him.

The "Pulse of the People," next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:43:37] CAMEROTA: OK, we are now 21 days from the midterm elections.

I recently sat down with the all-important Independent voters. Five of the people you're about to meet voted for Donald Trump, but all of them are now very disappointed, so much so every one of them is changing their party affiliation as a result of Donald Trump. And all of them want to send a message with their midterm vote.

Here is part two of our "Pulse of the People."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: How many of you consider the midterm vote very important? (All hands raised)

How many of you consider this a protest vote? (Three hands raised)

Dale, I'll start with you.

DALE MUNHOLLAND, CHANGED PARTY AFFILIATION FROM REPUBLICAN TO INDEPENDENT: I've been a lifelong Republican since the day I turned 18. For the first time in my life, I am going to vote a straight Democratic ticket in midterms. If they're connected to Donald Trump they are not connected to me.

CAMEROTA: So you now are no longer a Republican?

MUNHOLLAND: I am not, no. I changed my registration to Independent.

CAMEROTA: Because of Donald Trump?

MUNHOLLAND: Because of Donald Trump. It was no longer the party that I joined. It's morphed into something that's almost unrecognizable.

CAMEROTA: Stephanie, what are you wrestling with?

STEPHANIE MARTIN, CONSIDERING CHANGING PARTY AFFILIATION TO INDEPENDENT, REGRETS VOTING FOR TRUMP: I feel like I'm kind of without a party.

CAMEROTA: You were a lifelong Republican.

MARTIN: Right.

CAMEROTA: If somebody had told you, say 15 years ago, that you are preparing to vote a straight up-and-down Democratic ticket in the midterms you would have said what to them?

[07:45:02] MARTIN: Oh, it's crazy -- yes.

CAMEROTA: So why are you now doing it?

MARTIN: To see Republicans not stand up to him and the ones that do are just quitting -- just walking away like -- someone in the party needs to challenge them -- or challenge him or find someone better. Find some better options.

CAMEROTA: Nancy, how do you feel about it?

NANCY CELENTANO, REGRETS VOTING FOR TRUMP: I just think there's no values left anymore. There should be values. We have no values.

He doesn't have any values. I thought he had values.

CAMEROTA: What made you think that he had values --

CELENTANO: I don't know --

CAMEROTA: -- when you voted for him?

CELENTANO: He was talking about bringing America back and I'm thinking, these are values. I thought he was more in the middle and not Republican -- not to the right -- and I thought the left was too far left. I wanted someone in the middle.

So I thought it was going to change. No, it got worse.

RAHUL BLOKHRA, INDEPENDENT VOTER, REGRETS VOTING FOR TRUMP: Let's just make sure that we have the House as we want it, right? So this way, at least, no major damage will be done, right? That's the short- term.

And I think the long-term is I think we need to come up some solutions. I mean, let's work together.

CAMEROTA: How many of you want Democrats to take the House? (Four hands raised)

BLOKHRA: Yes.

CAMEROTA: And the Senate?

ANTHONY MILES, INDEPENDENT VOTER, REGRETS VOTING FOR TRUMP: And we pray that the Senate will go, too. For God's sake, they have to put up an end to this mess. CAMEROTA: Anthony, we interviewed you 11 months ago. Back then, you were on the fence about President Trump.

MILES: I try to be fair. We were in the first quarter of the game. I would always support the president, especially at the early part of the game.

CAMEROTA: And not to pour salt in a wound but just to remind you of what you told us back then, watch this.

MILES: We do not have a puppet in the White House anymore.

CAMEROTA: That makes your life better?

MILES: That gives me hope.

CAMEROTA: How do you feel today?

MILES: We've got a very crazy man driving the train and he's going to kill this country.

CAMEROTA: And, Anthony, are you voting a straight up-and-down Democratic ticket in the midterm?

MILES: Not only there. I am actually for the very first time contributing across the board, across the country. And I've never, ever written a check or spent any money on anything political because I'm afraid.

CAMEROTA: You have never -- you --

MILES: -- I'm afraid.

CAMEROTA: You've never given a --

MILES: Nickel.

CAMEROTA: -- political contribution? You've never given a nickel for a political contribution and now you're starting to open your checkbook?

MILES: Yes, it's a fear.

COHAN: I just want to say to every American that's having trouble with this, I am sorry I voted for him. I regret it with all my heart. I feel like I've enabled this monster to destroy democracy, destroy everything that is good in this country.

CAMEROTA: You've been an Independent for a long time, but now what?

COHAN: No, I'm definitely voting Democrat. I've been knocking on doors, I've got a clipboard.

CAMEROTA: You're even canvasing for Democrats.

COHAN: I am canvasing for a Democrat in Wyoming. CAMEROTA: That's how strongly you feel.

COHAN: I believe hardly anything the president says. But I do believe he's a danger to this country and to our democracy, and I'm going to fight every day. I'm going to fight every day.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: I will say it's interesting because people will watch these segments and say well, how independent were they really in the beginning?

Anthony, we had on T.V. --

CAMEROTA: A year ago.

BERMAN: -- a year ago and he not just wanted to cut the president some slack but thought the president was out there doing the job for him, and he's changed completely.

CAMEROTA: He has changed.

And so, again, some of these people were lifelong Republicans. They're changing to Independent as a result of them. Some of them have been always Independent or swing voters and they are changing to Democrats.

I mean, that's how strongly they feel about what they've seen over the past two years and they do feel like the midterms are the most important of their lives.

BERMAN: And it seems more of a personality thing than a policy thing to me.

CAMEROTA: Oh, it's about character. I mean, they talked about that. So some of them even agree with some of the policy issues the president has put forward but they have all, to a person, told me that it's a character issue that is now giving them so much dismay.

BERMAN: Fascinating -- great to have that. Thanks so much.

President Trump says he will ask Congress for emergency disaster aid in the wake of Hurricane Michael. The president and first lady got a firsthand look at the devastation.

Our Scott McLean live in Panama City, Florida this morning with the very latest -- Scott.

SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, John.

The president called seeing the devastation here "very tough." He was able to fly over Mexico Beach, which is really the epicenter of the hurricane damage, and see what was left of it. And there's not a whole lot, to be honest.

He also landed in Lynn Haven, Florida -- which is not far from Panama City where I am -- to speak to people there. And then, he handed out water at a FEMA distribution center. But these people are going to need a lot more help than just food and water.

But yesterday, in Mexico Beach, we met a man named Joe Bush who has a lot of faith that President Trump will help this region get back on its feet. He said that the president helps Americans and that he has a good heart.

This guy has rode out a lot of storms in his day but he left for this one, in particular. He got as far as Marianna, Florida, which is more than 50 miles inland. It wasn't far enough, though. He ended up with damage to his truck and his trailer, and then he comes back to Mexico Beach to find his house flooded out.

[07:50:08] There, in Mexico Beach, they have all but finished their search process -- looking for bodies, going through the rubble with cadaver dogs. They did find one more yesterday. The number of unaccounted for is now three or less.

Residents will be allowed back into Mexico Beach today -- not to stay there. It's not safe to stay. There's really nowhere to stay. But to dig through the rubble.

Here in Panama City, they are still in search and rescue mode. They are expecting to find more dead.

They're also in cleanup mode and as you can see, John and Alisyn, there is a heck of a lot to clean up, even before they start the process of rebuilding.

CAMEROTA: Oh my gosh, what a gruesome task on every level.

Scott, thank you very much for the update from Panama City.

Well, after a long Indian summer, it's finally fall in the northeast.

CNN meteorologist Jennifer Gray has our forecast. What are you seeing, Jennifer?

JENNIFER GRAY, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Oh, temperatures are cooler. And guess what? They're going to get even cooler as we head into the end of the week.

We are seeing temperatures in New York City of 56 degrees today after yesterday. We almost hit 70 degrees.

By the way, this weather update is brought to you by the Shark ION Robot Cleaning System. One dock, two sharks.

Yes, we do have that cooler air and it's going to be reinforced by the time we get into the end of the week. We even have cooler temperatures dipping all the way down into the south.

So here are the temperature trends. New York will be at 56 today, dropping down to 47 on Thursday. Your normal high is 64 degrees this time of year. Boston, the same -- 58 degrees, dropping to 45 by Thursday.

Of course, Chicago takes the dip on Wednesday and then warms back by Thursday.

The other big story we're following -- crazy amounts of rain across the Hill Country of Texas. Some of these areas, John, received over 10 inches of rain and it's still coming.

BERMAN: All right, Jennifer Gray. Thank you very much.

I want to show you pictures we're just getting in from moments ago. The U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo -- there he is, all smiles, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

Serious questions about whether the Saudis will admit today that they are responsible for the death of "Washington Post" journalist -- U.S.- based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. We're going to have much more on this coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:56:17] CAMEROTA: So, President Trump admits that he is reluctant to punish Saudi Arabia for the alleged murder of a "Washington Post" journalist because he does not want to put an arms deal at risk. So how lucrative is that arms deal?

CNN senior political analyst John Avlon explains in our "Reality Check."

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Let's dig into it.

So, first of all, this is not a freedom agenda administration. That's one thing that's been made clear by President Trump's muddled and money-driven response to the apparent killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Now, Trump reached for rationalization as evidence against Saudi Arabia piled up, and then he said this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't like the concept of stopping an investment of $110 billion into the United States because you know what they're going to do? They're going to take that money and spend it in Russia or China or someplace else.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AVLON: Now, forget for a minute the cost benefit analysis he's doing with a man's life. The number alone is worth scrutiny.

So when Trump first mentioned this military deal back in May of '17, it was $380 billion. The military component, $110 billion.

The Brookings Institution immediately called it fake news and here's why.

They are mostly memorandums of intent. Six items actually made it Congress, adding up to $28 billion, and all but one dated from the Obama administration. So when you look at the arms sales actually considered by Congress, that number drops to about $14 billion.

And even if these promises do convert to cold hard cash, their payments are scheduled far into the future. So no wonder "The Washington Post" calls it "a wish list."

So what about Trump's claim that Russia or China will do the deals if we don't? According to Brookings, it would take decades for the Saudis to transition their hardware so that's not really an issue. The real concern is Trump's cozy, personal, political, and financial relationship with the Saudi royals.

Now, the U.S.-Saudi alliance stretches back decades and held fast even when their policies ran counter to American values and interests.

But, team Trump bet even bigger on the Kingdom. His first foreign trip was to Saudi Arabia and they rolled out the red carpet, as well as this creepy orb.

Trump more than returned the favor though, telling the Saudis he'd take a more hands-off approach.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We are not here to lecture. We are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AVLON: Behold the Trump doctrine, folks. He may call it sovereignty but it's seen by dictators as a big green light. Do business with the U.S. and you can do what you want with human rights.

They don't even have an ambassador. Trump outsourced that job to his son-in-law who the crown prince reportedly bragged was in his pocket.

The ties are financial as well. According to "PolitiFact," the Saudis spent more than a quarter of a million dollars, and counting, at the Trump Hotel in Washington. And, Trump properties in New York and Chicago have beat downward trends with Saudi business according to "The Washington Post".

So when Trump said Khashoggi may have been done in by rogue killers it certainly seemed like he was trying to give the crown prince an out. All the more embarrassing that according to CNN's reporting the Saudis seemed to be ready to admit that the journalist was killed in an interrogation gone wrong. But we'll see if the president's promised severe punishment is to come.

But it's worth asking why a hugely inflated Saudi arms deal is worth selling out America's moral authority.

And that's your "Reality Check."

BERMAN: John Avlon, the arms deal isn't even the arms deal he purports it to be. A fascinating look there.

CAMEROTA: Thanks, John.

BERMAN: All right, we have a lot of news -- breaking news this morning -- Mike Pompeo in Saudi Arabia -- so let's get to it.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

BERMAN: Good morning. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Tuesday, October 16th, 8:00 here in the east.

And there is breaking news. America's top diplomat, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, meeting with the crown prince right now. We just got this video of Mike Pompeo with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

And I want you to look at the smiles here, look at the body language, look at the demeanors. They're talking about the apparent murder and dismemberment of a "Washington Post" --