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Strong Storms To Sweep Eastern U.S. On Election Day; CNN Reality Check: Election Benchmarks To Watch; Key Races To Watch Today; Minnesota Democrat Hoping Young Voters Send Him To Washington. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired November 6, 2018 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:30:48] ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: OK, we need to get to some Election Day weather and it looks extreme.

A tornado struck this morning in Alabama. There are reports of power being out in Knoxville, Tennessee. And, strong storms will sweep the eastern U.S. as Americans try to vote today.

CNN meteorologist Chad Myers has our forecast. How does it look, Chad?

CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Stormy, absolutely. Almost 40 reports of wind damage, two tornadoes on the ground already in the overnight hours, and the weather's not over. It is moving up toward the northeast.

Tornado watches are in effect already right now which means tornadoes could happen. Right now, we'll see a couple of spin-ups -- some smaller tornadoes.

But, what? What's it take to be a dangerous tornado for you? If it's close to your house -- it doesn't matter if it's one or 30 -- it is going to be a dangerous day all the way from Montgomery through Birmingham into Atlanta, Georgia throughout the morning hours into the afternoon.

It moves to -- about 10:00, that's when the weather really gets going. And then by 3:00 this afternoon, we start to move it into the northeast.

This is the day that we hoped didn't happen.

Now, there will be some raindrops -- there will be some spaces in between the raindrops. Plan your day, watch the radar. Things will get bumpy throughout the afternoon, especially toward the northeast. But right now, it was the overnight hours that really were the problem.

Temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Even down in Florida, in the 70s and 80s.

Guys, back to you. JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Chad Myers. Thanks, Chad. I appreciate it. Chad Myers there.

It's interesting. Traditionally speaking, bad weather helps Republicans. They're more likely to turn out.

But we talked to Robby Mook and Matt Gorman. They think that the weather could hurt Republicans' chances because there's more intensity among the Democrats this year.

CAMEROTA: That's interesting. And also the fact that it's happening in Florida, which they both --

BERMAN: Right.

CAMEROTA: -- told us to watch very closely.

BERMAN: All right, it is Election Day, which means we are done with the polls and projections. But some numbers tonight could decide whose campaign is truly a success.

CNN senior political analyst John Avlon joins us now with a "Reality Check" -- sir.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right, Berman. Put your partisan spin aside. It's game day -- Midterm election in America.

So after you go out and vote, keep an eye on these basic election benchmarks. This will help you keep the night's results in perspective, always the thing we have least of.

The first number is 37. It's the average number of House seats that a president's party loses in the midterms if he's below 50 percent approval. And, Trump is way below 50 percent approval in the latest CNN poll -- a historic low for a first time of 39 percent. And, Democrats need 23 seats to gain control of the House.

On the plus side for the president, unemployment is at near-50-year low and it would be a tsunami wave election if Republicans lose more than 63 seats as Democrats did in 2010. But that's looking unlikely.

Next up, 10. That's the number of Senate seats Democrats are defending in states that Trump won in 2016. They're trying to flip seats in red states like Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee.

That's why despite a razor-thin 59-49 balance of power advantage for Republicans it's an even steeper climb for Democrats. They've got to pitch a near-perfect game today to gain control of the Senate.

Now, who will decide the closest races? Independent voters, so keep your eye on this number -- 16 percent. That's the average swing of Independent voters to the opposition party in the last three midterm elections -- 2014, 2010, and 2006.

Now, speaking of the swing voters, 206. That's the number of so- called pivot counties that Trump won in 2016 that Obama had won twice before.

Take a look at this map -- that's the real battleground -- and notice how they cluster around the upper Midwest, especially Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Democrats are making strong runs for governor in each of these states that voted for Trump.

And while it's an annoying cliche to say that it all comes down to turnout, it's a cliche because it's true. So keep this final number in mind -- 40 percent. That's the average turnout for eligible voters in the last three midterm elections, including the wave elections of 2006 and 2010.

In 2014, midterm election turnout fell to 36.7 percent. That's a 40- year low.

America, we should be able to do better than only four in 10 voters casting a ballot given the stakes for this year's elections. So whatever your age, whatever your partisan affiliation, today's the day. Go out and vote because democracy is not a spectator sport.

And that's your "Reality Check."

CAMEROTA: You know John Avlon is serious when he addresses America directly.

BERMAN: He's talking to America.

CAMEROTA: Yes, you're talking --

BERMAN: He's talking to you.

CAMEROTA: Yes --

AVLON: You think?

CAMEROTA: -- and America is scared right now, John. Thank you for issuing that warning.

BERMAN: And our viewers all around the world, by the way.

CAMEROTA: That's right.

BERMAN: They're all watching --

[05:35:00] CAMEROTA: That's right. We are being --

BERMAN: -- what John's just talking to America about.

CAMEROTA: Simulcast internationally.

BERMAN: All right.

Which races will decide who controls the House and the Senate? We're going to break them down race-by-race and tell you what to watch for tonight. Stick around.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: In just a matter of minutes, polls will open in 12 states on the east coast. So what are the races to watch?

Here with us now, Ron Brownstein, senior editor at "The Atlantic" and CNN senior political analyst. Alisyn said if I have to be here, Ron has to be here also.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST, SENIOR EDITOR, THE ATLANTIC: It's game day. Where else would you want to be?

CAMEROTA: I like your enthusiasm.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: You are the human guide.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: You are a guide --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- for tonight. What we want to know is what are the races you are watching for that would be indicative --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- of where it's all going.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. So, I picked four races that Democrats don't have to win but each would measure how far their gains may go.

The first one, Virginia seven. Dave Brat in the Richmond suburbs, a district that is more Republican-leaning than the northern Virginia district the Democrats have to win and are likely to win against Barbara Comstock.

[05:40:08] This will measure, I think, how far the Democratic advance proceeds in those white-collar suburbs outside the south. And in the Comstock district, that's gone.

If Democrats are also winning this in our next district, Pennsylvania one, very similar with Brian Fitzpatrick. You know, Democrats are almost certain to win open seats in the Philadelphia suburbs.

If they're also beating Brian Fitzpatrick, who is a moderate incumbent who does not talk about his party affiliation -- again, that is a sign that the losses for Republicans in these white-collar suburbs outside of the south could be enormous. That is the epicenter of the Republican vulnerability.

The third race I picked was one that will measure something a little different. That's Kentucky six. Again, a race that Democrats don't have to win. But this is an interesting district because it combines suburban, urban, university, state capital with more rural areas. And it's important because you have a number of districts like that and it will be an interesting measure of whether the suburban intensity against Trump or the rural intensity for Trump -- which one is more powerful at the moment.

And then one final one that I picked was Georgia six.

CAMEROTA: Georgia six, yes.

BROWNSTEIN: You know, as people say, the Ossoff district without Ossoff.

Lucy McBath is ahead in several recent polls and if, in fact, she wins -- again, this is not a district that Democrats need to win to get to 23, but if she wins it will mean that the erosion for Republicans in white-collar suburbs is not confined to the coast and the upper Midwest. It's extending into the south, and that would be, again, the kind of advance for Democrats that would allow them to get higher in their total.

If McBath wins, it's entirely possible that Republicans could lose seats in Houston and Dallas and other southern suburbs which have been tougher for Democrats than the northern suburbs where Republicans are most vulnerable.

CAMEROTA: Do you want to move on to the Senate?

BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely.

CAMEROTA: You're looking at Indiana.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Tell us what this one looks like.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. So, Indiana is the -- is the state on the bubble for Democrats in terms of how far their exposure extends in the red states that Trump won.

The toughest two for Democrats to hold are North Dakota, obviously, which seems almost gone, and Missouri with Claire McCaskill, who is on the defensive.

But, Indiana and Montana are in the next tier and if Democrats are going to hold -- have any chance of avoiding a loss -- a net loss in the Senate, it's important for them to hold Indiana -- hold the line, pretty much, after North Dakota and Missouri.

CAMEROTA: How about in Arizona?

BROWNSTEIN: See, Arizona is the flipside, right? So the best Democratic opportunity is in Nevada.

That's the one where the early vote -- the Culinary Workers Union and the Harry Reid machine have banked an over-40,000-vote early vote advantage in Clark County -- Las Vegas. And that's usually the cut- off number for them to win the state. So they have to feel good about Nevada. But, Arizona is their next best chance to flip a state.

And so I kind of think of Indiana and Arizona as toggling, right? I mean, you've got the two likely losses for Democrats or the greatest risk of losses -- the one likely pick-up. Indiana and Arizona are kind of the next states that will decide whether it's a wash or whether Democrats have a net loss in the Senate.

BERMAN: And, Indiana's early. Indiana's early --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- so that's a sign of the night.

Ron, talk to us about voting blocs.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, yes.

So look, I mean, the biggest difference between this election and typical midterm elections is something we've talked about forever, which is Trump's unusual weakness among college-educated white voters. That is the reason why so many Republicans are at risk in these suburban, white-collar districts around the country.

In the last two midterms, 2010 and 2014, Democrats, according to the exit polls, won about 40 percent of college-educated white voters each time.

The CNN poll yesterday -- it was 60 percent voting Democrat. Fifty- five percent in the ABC and the NBC polls that came out over the weekend.

If that holds, that -- and by the way, that -- the striking thing there, of course, is that these are the voters who are doing best in this thriving economy and yet, they are making a judgment about Trump on his values, about the way he talks about race, the way he talks about women. The -- kind of the volatility.

It is very much a personal judgment and a recall not only among women -- women, obviously, the biggest movement, as you know --

CAMEROTA: They're -- yes. I mean, they're the wild card --

BROWNSTEIN: -- as you know.

CAMEROTA: -- right?

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

CAMEROTA: They're the swing voters who --

BROWNSTEIN: But the men have also moved.

In this last poll -- in the CNN poll, Democrats are winning college- educated white men, which never happens. They haven't hit 40 percent in an exit poll among men since 2006. And they are winning them as well, although the women are the really big number and the potential there.

So that's the first one.

Second, I think, is millennials, right? I mean, millennials are a very strongly-Democratic-leaning group at this time. They're all -- they're plus-20 among them in most of the polls.

But they usually fall off enormously in midterms. They're about 20 percent of the vote in a presidential, maybe only about 12 or 13 percent in a -- in a midterm.

So far, though, in the early vote, their turnout has been significant. Four hundred and sixty percent increase in Texas, 360 percent increase in Georgia. Three million total votes, according to TargetSmart, cast already by people under 30. It was only one million --

CAMEROTA: Wow.

BROWNSTEIN: -- in 2014. So --

CAMEROTA: And so, these are uncounted. I mean, previously --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- people who weren't part of the mix.

[05:45:00] BROWNSTEIN: Exactly right.

CAMEROTA: That's interesting.

BROWNSTEIN: And, Georgia -- there have been 800,000 people who have voted early who didn't vote in 2014.

The last thing I'd mention, quickly, is seniors, right, because seniors are the flipside of millennials. Their share of the electorate goes up always in the midterms. It goes up from about a sixth to over a fifth. It goes up.

Normally, Republicans win seniors. They have been winning seniors in midterms for years. They won them by about at least 15 points in each of the last two midterms -- 2010 and 2014.

Again, CNN and "The Wall Street Journal" polls -- Republicans are losing seniors probably because of the focus on Medicare and health care among Democrats.

Those three groups, I think, will tell us a lot about where this is going.

BERMAN: Ron Brownstein, human voter guide and viewer guide for the evening. Thank you for being with us.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you. BERMAN: It's great to see you, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: Thanks for having me.

CAMEROTA: As Ron was just saying, young voters usually stay home in a midterm election. But many candidates are counting on the young vote today. Why some believe the youngsters could swing this entire election. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:50:10] BERMAN: More than 31 million Americans voted early in the midterm elections. They've already voted. Their ballots are in.

And there's been a dramatic surge in the number of young people casting ballots. So what difference will the youth vote make tonight?

CNN's Jason Carroll has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DEAN PHILLIPS (D), CANDIDATE FOR MINNESOTA U.S. REPRESENTATIVE: How's everybody doing?

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Dean Phillips, a Minnesota liquor heir and political newcomer, is looking to accomplish something Democrats in the state's third congressional district haven't been able to do since 1961 -- win. How? By relying, in part, on a voting bloc that inspired him to run.

PHILLIPS: I'm the father of two teenaged daughters and I watched that election with them that night in November 2016. I did not want to wake up on November seventh of 2018 and feel the same way.

CARROLL: Phillips is betting on young voters to turn out to help him unseat five-term Republican incumbent Erik Paulsen.

REP. PAUL RYAN (R-MN), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: The whole country is watching Minnesota.

CARROLL: Paulsen has name recognition, history, and the president on his side. But polls show Phillips with an edge in a district that encompasses Minneapolis' swanky suburbs to the west and the city's northeastern working-class neighborhoods.

The Paulsen campaign did not respond to repeated requests from CNN for an interview.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE).

PHILLIPS: Yes.

CARROLL: The Phillips campaign is holding roundtables aimed at mobilizing younger voters.

PHILLIPS: All right. So, do you all know that only about 25 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

PHILLIPS: -- in the country voted in the last midterm election?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And we're going to change that.

PHILLIPS: OK.

CARROLL: Minnesota's third ranks third on Tufts University's list of congressional districts where young people have the potential to have an impact on the results.

ELEANOR DOLAN, 15-YEAR-OLD VOLUNTEER: It looks like they're home.

CARROLL: Members of the campaign's so-called "Dean's List," a group of young volunteers --

DOLAN: Hello.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How's it going?

CARROLL: -- say they became engaged after seeing how Parkland, Florida students became politically active.

DOLAN: The Parkland shooting happened and then it really became clear that youth had a place in politics.

CARROLL (on camera): And that you think Parkland was part of --

DOLAN: Yes.

CARROLL: -- that flipping switch.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, totally.

DOLAN: Definitely.

CARROLL (voice-over): Parkland survivor David Hogg says he does not endorse candidates. Instead, he's hit the road to promote the importance of voting. During a stop in New York, he told us he took a page from President Trump.

DAVID HOGG, ACTIVIST, MARCH FOR OUR LIVES: I feel like I know how Donald Trump won and it's by getting the disenfranchised voters that felt like they didn't have a voice. And that's literally kind of -- we're doing the same thing, just with young people.

CARROLL: There are signs such efforts might be working. Forty percent of people under the age of 30 say they definitely plan to vote Tuesday, according to a Harvard Institute of Politics poll. That's a significant jump from 23 percent in 2014 and 31 percent in 2010.

And gun violence is not the only issue motivating these voters. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you registered to vote?

CARROLL: In Virginia, an array of issues inspiring first-time voters on the campus of William and Mary.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would say immigration.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think sexual harassment, sexual assault.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I just want to see like some kind of civil discourse in our country.

CARROLL: And this from a town hall at Harvard University.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Who said police brutality -- just raise your hand? OK. I've got health care.

CARROLL: Whatever the issue, in the North Star State, Dean Phillips hopes it will guide him to victory.

Jason Carroll, CNN, Minneapolis.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: We will know tomorrow if they turned out.

Meanwhile, to this story. The U.S. Olympic Committee is moving to revoke a USA Gymnastics status -- their status as a sports-governing body in the wake of the Larry Nassar scandal.

In an open letter to the gymnastics community, Olympic committee chief Sarah Hirshland writes, "Everyone now faces the difficult reality of belonging to a national organization that continues to struggle to change its culture, to rebuild its leadership, and to effectively serve its membership. You deserve better" -- end quote.

Hirshland says the decertification process does not guarantee a particular outcome.

USA Gymnastics serves more than 150,000 athletes around the country.

BERMAN: You know, it's fascinating. There's so much turmoil in the gymnastics community here. One thing that his happening while there is this turmoil, they're winning.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

BERMAN: The girls' team is winning.

CAMEROTA: The tenacity --

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- that they have shown as athletes throughout all of this drama has been incredible.

BERMAN: Good for them.

All right.

The campaigning is over. It's all in the voters' hands. Wake up, get out, go vote.

By tonight, we will know which party will control Congress. We have it all covered for you. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:53:29] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's going to come to turnout. Every last vote really does matter.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If the radical Democrats take power they will take a wrecking ball to our country.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VERMONT: This election is about whether we feel comfortable having a president who is a pathological liar.

MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I've got a feeling that blue wave is going to hit that red wall all across America.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A lot of people are going to the polls to say our leader is engaging in conduct unbecoming a president.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Security is on the ballot. It's the time for action.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota and John Berman.

BERMAN: Welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. This is NEW DAY. It's Tuesday, November sixth, 6:00 here in Washington.

It is on. It is now officially Election Day. As of this minute, polls open in 12 states.

Who will win? What will happen? We don't know.

What we do know --

CAMEROTA: Yes.

BERMAN: -- is that this is a defining election for the country and really, for the president as well.

Thirty-one million people, by the way, have already cast early votes.

The big question, the balance of power in Congress. Will Democrats flip the House and maybe the Senate? Will Republicans keep control? Four hundred and thirty-five House seats at stake tonight; 35 seats in

the Senate. Governor's races, they're huge as well -- 36 of them. They could tell us really more than anything about the direction of the country.

CAMEROTA: So, the elections today are also, of course, about President Trump. The president making his final pitch to save the Republican majority in Congress.

On Monday, he attended three rallies in three states, intensifying his anti-immigrant rhetoric.