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Story highlights
- Mel Robbins: Kasich, Cruz teaming up to deny Trump votes for nomination. It'll backfire on GOP
- She says strategy too complicated, asks voters to avoid someone who's winning. GOP, face facts
Mel Robbins is a CNN commentator, legal analyst, best-selling author and keynote speaker. In 2014, she was named outstanding news talk-radio host by the Gracie Awards. This op-ed includes language that some might find offensive. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
(CNN)The gloves are off.
In what will either go down in history as a brilliant strategy shift or an embarrassing, losing gambit, GOP opponents John Kasich and Ted Cruz have announced they are joining forces to take down their common rival, Donald Trump.
Trump's response was fast and "on brand." In a tweet he wrote that it was desperation for the two to "collude in order to keep me from getting the Republican nomination."
For months pundits and politicians have speculated that there would be backroom dealings aimed at denying Trump a first-ballot win and a brokered Republican Convention this summer. That speculation is over; there is going to be a public brawl. You thought politics couldn't get more interesting, nasty or sink any lower.
This is like two parents divorcing and begging the kids to pick favorites. It's public, it's ugly, it's confusing -- and it's going to blow up in Kasich's, Cruz's and the GOP's face.
What on earth is the Republican Party doing?
Once again, on all things strategy, Trump is 100% correct. Is this an act of too-late desperation? Yup. Is it collusion? Textbook. And how are Cruz and Kasich joining forces? "Game of Thrones" style: They are trading states to consolidate delegates, in hope of beating their common enemy, Trump.
Kasich is telling his voters to back Cruz in Indiana, and likewise, Cruz will not compete against Kasich in Oregon and New Mexico.
Photos: John Kasich's political career
Ohio Gov. John Kasich speaks at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Summit on April 18, 2015, in Nashua, New Hampshire. The summit was attended by all the 2016 Republican candidates as well as those eying a run for the nomination. Click through for more on the political career of Kasich:
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich speaks during the Republican National Convention at the Tampa Bay Times Forum on August 28, 2012, in Florida.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich, left, and then-Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney talk with students during a roundtable discussion at Otterbein University on April 27, 2012 in Westerville, Ohio. Romney eventually won the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich, left, President Barack Obama, center, and Republican House Speaker John Boehner play the first hole of a golf game on June 18, 2011, at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich listens to Obama speak during a bipartisan meeting of governors hosted by the President and Vice President Joe Biden in the State Dining Room of the White House on February 28, 2010.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Before officially taking office as governor of Ohio, Kasich talks with reporters after meeting with House and Senate Republican leaders at the U.S. Capitol on December 1, 2010. The GOP leaders talked about ways to create jobs, cut spending and repeal the health care law.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich, right, then a member of the U.S. House, sports "Bush" baseball caps with Texas Gov. George W. Bush on July 14, 1999. The two lawmakers held a news conference at the Ronald Reagan International Trade Center in Washington during Bush's presidential run. Kasich had previously announced that he was withdrawing from the 2000 presidential race and endorsed Bush.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
U.S. Rep. Kasich delivers a speech in the Watergate complex in Washington on July 9, 1999, during the College Republican National Committee 53rd Biennial Convention. Other speakers included Republican 2000 presidential hopefuls such as Gary Bauer and Elizabeth Dole.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
During a U.S. government shutdown, Kasich, left, and Sen. Pete Domenici, R-New Mexico, speak to reporters outside the White House on January 6, 1996.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich shows a videotape of President Bill Clinton speaking during a news conference on Capitol Hill on December 16, 1995. Kasich was chairman of the House Budget Committee at the time and disputed Clinton's position on the budget.
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Photos: John Kasich's political career
Kasich, center, shows a thank you note in the form of a check to Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, left, and Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole (right) on November 17, 1995, in Washington. They were soon engaged in bruising battles with President Bill Clinton over the federal budget.
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There are three research-backed reasons why this won't work:
1. Research proves people like to back a winner. By joining forces, Cruz and Kasich aren't becoming the underdogs conservatives root for, they're highlighting the fact that Trump is the inevitable nominee. That will throw more independents into his camp and push the undecideds. Being the perceived winner is a huge advantage. Example? On Kickstarter, your odds of succeeding are 10 times higher once you reach about half your funding goal. Trump is already there with 845 delegates of the 1,237 that he needs.
2. It's a turn-off to supporters because of cognitive bias. That is, we seek out information that we agree with. You'll spend 36% more time reading an article if you agree with it. Our brains actively try to find disagreement with things that we don't like.
If you like Kasich, you will find reason to dislike Cruz. And vice versa.
If I'm a Kasich fan I won't suddenly feel good voting for Cruz because my mind is made up: I have already decided Kasich is the best candidate. It will take a rallying of uncontrollable variables to make sure that voters in the states the two candidates are divvying up will stick to the plan, all biases aside.
3. It's too complicated. Research shows that when we are faced with too many choices or instructions that aren't clear, we don't change behavior. And it's not clear what's going on. Seasoned political commentators hammer Trump for his lack of substance, but the irony is it's his simplicity that appeals to many.
There's nothing simple about this Kasich-Cruz alliance. It translates to voters like this:
Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has quickly made a name for himself. Since taking office in 2012, the Texas Republican has solidified his brand as a conservative firebrand willing to take on establishment members of the GOP.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz speaks during the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida, in August 2012.
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Vice President Joe Biden administers the Senate oath to Cruz during a mock swearing-in ceremony in January 2013. Cruz was accompanied by his wife, Heidi Nelson, and his two daughters, Caroline and Catherine.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
During a news conference in March 2013, Cruz announces a plan to defund the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz heads to the weekly Senate Republicans policy luncheon in Washington in March 2013.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz speaks during the National Rifle Association's Annual Meeting and Exhibits in May 2013.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz speaks during the "Exempt America from Obamacare" rally in Washington in September 2013.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz emerges from the Senate chamber after spending more than 21 hours railing against Obamacare in September 2013.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in October 2013.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
From left, U.S. Sens. Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Cruz listen as President Barack Obama delivers his State of the Union address in January 2014.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz leaves a briefing at the U.S. Capitol in June. The briefing was about the prisoner exchange that freed Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl from the Taliban.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
From left, Cruz attends a Capitol Hill news conference with U.S. Reps. Marsha Blackburn, John Carter and Lamar Smith in September. Cruz discussed immigration reform at the news conference.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts, center, is joined by Cruz and former Sen. Tom Coburn at a rally in WIchita, Kansas, in October.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz poses for a selfie following his February speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference in National Harbor, Maryland.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
A woman piles up Cruz stickers during the Conservative Political Action Conference.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz speaks Tuesday, March 10, during the Alfred K. Whitehead Legislative Conference and Presidential Forum in Washington. Prospective presidential candidates from both political parties participated in the forum.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
"Late Night" host Seth Meyers interviews Cruz on Monday, March 16.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Cruz brings his daughters Caroline, left, and Catherine on stage during a walk-through Sunday, March 22, at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia.
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Photos: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
On that same stage, Cruz officially announces his campaign for the presidency on Monday, March 23.
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"So let me get this straight, if I'm a Kasich supporter and if I live in Indiana, I'm supposed to vote for Cruz (who I don't like), in the hopes that we defeat Trump and in the hopes that Kasich will then defeat Cruz (who I just voted for) in the primary? Huh? I don't think so, and now I am starting to lose interest."
Plus, when it's time to vote, voters may wonder: "Is everyone else really going to do it?" "Will this hurt [Kasich or Cruz's] chances in the convention?"
Moreover, unless Cruz and Kasich are hammering this on the airways at every single stop, it's not going to trickle down to the masses.
By all appearances they are not instructing voters to do anything. Kasich was campaigning in Pennsylvania this morning and, from what I watched, he was using the national air time coverage in a diner to talk about leg pressing 325 pounds, not pushing this Cruz-Kasich alliance. Heck, as he shook hands with diners, he didn't seem to be actually asking people to vote for him. He might want to start doing that.
Remember, this is a primary and people are pretty focused on whom they like. If this were a national campaign strategy to unite Republicans against the Democrats, voters would likely be more willing to vote for people they don't like based on their party ties.
Instead, this GOP "Anyone-but-Trump" strategy will hand the election to Hillary Clinton, as it games the system, demonizes Trump, antagonizes his supporters--and fractures the party even further.
Apparently the GOP does not want to face the reality that it has become so out of touch on social policies that it can't attract moderates. Much of the GOP's rhetoric scares people; it doesn't even try to attract Democrats and can't attract independents. Trump is succeeding at all of the above because he is uniting people on one simple belief: politicians are a phony, stuck up lot.
The irony is this, and I've been saying it for months: Trump is the GOP's only shot at the White House, and by "joining forces" against him because he's not a "true" conservative (what's that again?), they have just caused their own party to implode.